Some empires fall; others flourish. This historical constant underlies the ambition of certain rulers of the Global South who believe that the liberal international order must be reconfigured and the hegemony of the West put an end to it. Among them is the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman, determined to consolidate his economy beyond oil and become a geopolitical actor. The prince follows the path started by Qatar and the Emirates, which also swim in oil and gas, but do not have enough dimension to influence globally.
Ever since the Royal Navy replaced coal with oil in 1911, the world has depended on hydrocarbons. The creation of the OPEC cartel in the 1960s consolidated the power of the producing countries and, despite the fight against climate change, we will continue to depend on the black gold for a while.
What's more, in recent years, the Gulf monarchies have strengthened exports thanks to the sanctions on Iran, Russia and Venezuela, the low investment in exploration of other countries in the process of energy transition and the strategy of OPEC (Russia) to reduce production and increase prices. The result is an extraordinary flow of wealth to these countries. The sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia (PIF) accumulates assets greater than half of the GDP of Spain and the sum of PIF with the sovereign funds of the Emirates and Qatar could reach 4 trillion dollars by 2030.
This fortune is used differently than in the past. In the past, these countries invested with the main objective of displaying their great fortune, like any nouveau riche. Today, the leaders of the Gulf have laid out scripts for this enormous wealth to be used to gain global influence. In the case of Saudi Arabia, this script is called Vision 2030, and includes the recruitment of athletes (Ronaldo, Neymar) and the attraction of competitions (golf, F-1, Super Cup).
The kingdom aspires to become a tourist power (and not just, as it already is, religious tourism), developing tolerant beach areas and even ski resorts. Gigantic renewable generation projects are being promoted in preparation for exporting green energy (hydrogen) in a world without oil.
It invests in desalination to gain land in the desert with forests and futuristic cities like The Line, a linear city of 170 km for a million inhabitants, without cars. Neom, in the northwest, will be a high-tech region. And Kaust University (Jeddah), with an endowment similar to Harvard, attracts the world's best scientific talent in engineering, mathematics and biology. All this includes a controlled relaxation of the strict Wahhabi morality, with incipient freedoms for women, although unfortunately it does not lead to improvements in other aspects of human rights.
In the international arena, the aim is to become a force of pragmatic global influence independent of its great historical protector, the USA, which has led it to invest more in armaments, take over the China and Russia, closing wounds with Iran, and even exploring an agreement with Israel that could be signed soon. The purchase of Western strategic assets is part of this tactic: what we are seeing these days with Telefónica is only the beginning. Since 2008, in European countries there is less and less capital, a lot of debt and devalued assets; in the Persian Gulf, an abundance of capital, strategy and ambition. What will prevail?
