How close is a new deal between Israel and Hamas?
It's a question that is repeated every day with every report on progress and setbacks, and for which there is still no definitive answer.
If you take into account the messages of the mediators, by the Secretary of State of the United States, Antony Blinken, there are "hopes", or "significant progress", according to the Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Muhammad bin Abderrahman al-Thani, all and who admit that there is work to be done. However, the public expressions of the conflicting parties represent a bucket of cold water.
After receiving a draft that emerged from two days of talks in Paris between the intelligence chiefs of the United States, Egypt and Israel and from the aforementioned Al-Thani, the leader of the Hamas political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, says that he is "studying" the proposal - which is why he is expected to travel to Cairo - and has shown himself to be "open to discussing any serious and practical idea". Of course, he reiterates the demand for "a complete withdrawal of troops" and the "freedom" of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.
These two demands are not acceptable to the Israeli leaders, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again made clear. In a speech to students at a military academy in the settlement of Eli in the occupied West Bank (an ultra-Orthodox and Jewish supremacist stronghold), he denied that they must "withdraw" Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip and release thousands of terrorists.
Statements in front of the gallery are not always related to what is negotiated behind the scenes. But in this case they reflect what remains the main point of disagreement in the talks: Hamas wants guarantees of a path to a definitive ceasefire that Israel is not willing to give.
However, there is a willingness to negotiate and there is an outline of an agreement on the table, which is a step forward compared to the last few weeks. This proposal sets out three phases to achieve the release of all hostages held in Gaza, a significant number of Palestinian prisoners and a potential ceasefire.
Of these stages, Axios reveals, only the first is defined, which would include a six-week break for the release of between 35 and 40 hostages, specifically women, children, men over 60 and with serious medical conditions. For each hostage Israel would agree to release three Palestinian prisoners.
A second phase would allow the release of civilian men under 60 and Israeli soldiers held by Palestinian militias, while the third would include the return of the bodies of dead hostages. In these instances, the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released for each hostage would be increased, while the cessation of hostilities could be extended.
But there are quite a few obstacles that this road map – which is still preliminary – could have to face. One is the volatility of what is happening on the ground, with an Israeli siege that does not reduce its violence in Gaza – on the contrary, Israel has reactivated its attacks in the north and center in view of reports of Hamas regrouping – and which exacerbates the humanitarian crisis, the exodus and the hunger of the Palestinians.
Added to this are the growing tensions in the region and the calculations of the United States, which wants to respond to the attack by the pro-Iranian militias that killed three of its soldiers without putting the dialogues at risk.
And the other stumbling block is the internal pressure that Netanyahu is facing. On the one hand, relatives of hostages are increasing protests for a release agreement and Benny Gantz's National Unity party is considering dissolving the war cabinet if the prime minister rejects a viable exchange proposal with Hamas. On the other hand , the Minister of Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, threatens to bring down the Government if Netanyahu accepts a "reckless" agreement. At the same time, he and more than a dozen ministers and legislators from the ultranationalist and supremacist wing of the coalition multiply their support for the reoccupation of Gaza, as happened at a conference in Jerusalem on Sunday. This is in contrast to what Washington is demanding and while the prime minister remains ambiguous about plans for the strip once the Israeli invasion ends.
