Israel has raised the alarm about the possibility that Iran will retaliate for the attack on the Iranian consular annex in Syria, in which seven members of the Revolutionary Guard were killed. As usual, Israel did not claim responsibility, but it was its most daring and reckless attack, if you look at its operations against Iranian positions in Syria, which have escalated since October 7, and it is considered the hardest blow against Tehran since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020.
Therefore, according to the experts, a response is inevitable - especially after two clear calls to "punish" Israel made by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei - and, as reported by Bloomberg citing intelligence sources, the attack it may be "imminent" and include "precision drones and missiles".
Without directly mentioning the Iranian warnings, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured yesterday that they are preparing for "challenges on other fronts" and warned that "we will hurt anyone who attacks us". A warning in line with the message that his foreign minister, Israel Katz, wrote in Persian to X, promising to strike in Iranian territory if any attack comes to Israel.
As part of the preparations to which Netanyahu alluded, Israel's army radio reported that the Air Force conducted a joint exercise with Cyprus in recent days, simulating an air operation and impact on a remote target.
At the same time, the prospect of Iranian retaliation has once again mobilized the US. President Joe Biden has cut short his criticism of Netanyahu for controlling his invasion of Gaza and on Wednesday reaffirmed the United States' "firm commitment" to Israel's security. A message that the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, reiterated in a call with the Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, and that was evidenced yesterday with the visit to Israel of the head of the Central Command, General Michael Kurilla.
On the other hand, Washington has also pulled diplomatic strings. According to Reuters, US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk asked the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iraq to urge Iran to reduce tensions. with Israel, and Russia and Germany have tried the same.
The head of German diplomacy, Annalena Baerbock, urged her Iranian counterpart, Hussein Amir Abdul·lahian, to "maximum restraint"; while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said otherwise could "lead to total destabilization in the region."
From these countries, precisely, have come the first precautions for a hypothetical expansion of the war that Israel maintains. The German airline Lufthansa has suspended flights to Tehran until April 13 and Moscow has advised its citizens to avoid travel to the Middle East, especially to Israel, Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian Territories.
Iran, through the X account of its mission to the UN, has reproached the Security Council for not having condemned the Israeli bombing of its consulate in Damascus, claiming that, if it had done so , “Iran's imperative to punish this rogue regime could have been overlooked.
As it shapes its response, Tehran appears to be playing a war of nerves, with encrypted messages and speculation about when and which places it might strike, circulated on accounts associated with the regime. It is another challenge from the Israeli authorities. If after the assault in Syria they had to calm the citizens, as some went out to hoard food and withdraw money, now "the Israelis have no idea what to do, nor how to prepare", criticizes Mairav Zonszein, of the non-profit Crisis Group, pointing to the government's lack of leadership.
However, few dare to predict what will happen. Amwaj media - based in London and dedicated to the Persian Gulf - bets, citing anonymous Iranian sources, that the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied and annexed by Israel, could be the target of the Iranian counterattack, since it would pose a "lower risk of an Israeli reprisal".
Analysts agree that Iran cannot bear the military and economic cost of an all-out war with Israel (and, by alliance, the US), which would simultaneously shift the focus from Gaza and reinvigorate support for the increasingly isolated Netanyahu government. But he also cannot not respond to what has happened in Damascus in order not to lose credibility among his followers. Thus, the scenarios range from a direct and limited strike on Israeli territory to an increase in the actions of the militias that respond to Tehran in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
