On the 15th of this month, the electoral process formally begins to determine who will be the candidate of the Republican Party in the November elections. On that day, so-called caucuses are held in the state of Iowa, neighborhood assemblies in schools, parishes and civic centers in which citizens, usually by a show of hands, express their political preferences and designate the delegates for the national conventions that will decide formally the candidacies.
The Republicans are following the traditional model and, if nothing out of the ordinary happens, the next day should be made public the endorsements obtained by the candidates who are running: former President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, ex-ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek, to mention the only four who are capable at first sight of getting delegates.
The Democrats deserve a separate point, since, following the fiasco experienced in 2020 - an application supposedly designed to speed up the process did not work and weeks passed before the results were known -, they decided to apply a progressive nomination system of delegates that begins on January 12 and culminates in the so-called Super Tuesday, the date at the beginning of March when a considerable number of states vote. In any case, President Biden barely has opposition in his party to get the nomination.
With this, the Democrats are abandoning a tradition of half a century that placed this very atypical state – much whiter, more agricultural and now more windy than the average of the country – in the momentous role of kingmaker, of granting credibility and traction to candidacies until then unknown or surrounded by questions. It was the case, for example, of Jimmy Carter in 1976, until then a semi-unknown southern governor and, following his victory in Iowa, the candidate to beat finally triumphant. It was even more spectacular, if possible, the victory in the 2008 appointment of Barack Obama, a young and novice senator, who was able to impose himself despite the color of his skin in a lily-white state, of rude white farmers of mostly evangelical confession. Yes you can, or at least you could...
Iowa, with just over three million inhabitants and with only one city, Des Moines, over two hundred thousand, has gone from being a hinge state to a bastion of Trumpism. In 1988, it was the second-highest percentage of votes for the defeated Democratic candidate, Michael Dukakis, and voted solidly for both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. However, everything turned upside down with Donald Trump, who easily prevailed over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. The reason may have to do with powerful socio-cultural conservatism and primacy for those verals of faith evangelical, careful and paradoxically cultivated by a kind of personal customs as unedifying as those that adorn the former president.
Ultimately, the most important thing at stake in the assemblies on the 15th is which Republican candidate would be best placed to pick up the torch from Donald Trump in the event that the numerous judicial fronts he now has open end up taking their toll on the former president. Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley? Both would have very good prospects of denying President Biden re-election, perhaps better than Trump himself.
