Israel is just in the second phase – of four – of its military plan in Gaza and the US State Department is trying to shape the future of the strip in a way that does not upset the balance in the region. Its head, Antony Blinken, insisted on Wednesday: no displacement of the population to Egypt and no Israeli military reoccupation. In light of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's assertion that Israel would take over "security" (a vague term) in Gaza for an "indefinite period," Blinken said the period must be " transitory".
If it seems that Netanyahu alludes to the maintenance of the Gaza fence as a kind of prison camp, Blinken specified that Gaza should be unified with the West Bank under the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which is still chaired by Mahmud Abbas. And if not, it would be necessary to apply "temporary arrangements that include other countries, international agencies, etc."
Much easier said than done, of course. This, without even mentioning the opinion of the Gazans, bombed every day for a month and about whom no one invokes the Fourth Geneva Convention, which indicates the protection of the occupied civilian population, an obligation for Israel , as the land, sea and air space of Gaza are under its jurisdiction.
Mahmud Abbas and Hussein al-Sheikh, secretary general of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), respond that the PNA could administer Gaza if the US forces Israel to make a "comprehensive political decision that includes Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem”. In other words, to address the global Palestinian issue instead of a post-Haman Gaza that even the Pentagon sees as illusory if the war lasts much longer.
Mustafa Barghouti, the Palestinian leader of the third way (on the opposite side of Al-Fatah and Hamas) and a man who is too little heard, expressed it this way: "Talking about external protection over the Gaza Strip aims to give legitimacy to the Israeli occupation, exempting it from responsibility for the humanitarian needs of those under occupation and transferring it to another actor”. This other actor would also include Egypt, but President Al-Sissi refuses not only to take in refugees (there is a suspicion that Israel intends to expel the Gazans), but to take charge of the "security" of Gaza until it takes charge of ANP Nor does he want international forces on the border, an idea already raised by the ANP in the 2008-2009 war. The difference is that then the interpretation was that Israel wanted a disarmed Hamas that would still serve its interests in preventing the so-called Palestinian national unity. Today what it proclaims is its annihilation. In the midst of Blinken's diplomatic activity, the Israeli Government spokesman, Eylon Levy, said: "It is very premature to talk about the day after Hamas."
Apart from all this, for the ANP to take charge of Gaza without anything in return would be poisonous. Not only Mahmoud Abbas, 88 years old and almost twenty years in office, is very discredited. In fact, these years illegal Jewish settlements have multiplied in the West Bank, as have controls, arrests and all kinds of limitations; the wall of Jerusalem has also been erected. The ANP, created with the Oslo Accords of 1992 between Rabin and Arafat, only has administrative power over a fraction of the occupied territory, and even its police agencies are subordinate to the Israeli army. That is, it is not a real authority.
Antony Blinken's proposal seeks a return to the past. But with a trick. In 2005 Ariel Sharon evacuated the settlers from Gaza (leaving, of course, the barriers and external military control, including a captive balloon equipped with cameras, later replaced by drones) and passed its administration to the ANP In 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian elections (there have been no more). In 2007, Muhammad Dahlan, head of ANP security in Gaza, attempted a coup d'état - allegedly with the help of Israel, the US and the United Arab Emirates, enemies of the Muslim Brotherhood - from which Hamas originates – which was thwarted by Hamas. Blood flowed in the streets and the men of Al-Fatah fled. Muhammad Dahlan went to Abu Dhabi.
Since then, Dahlan has done business, many contacts, and is said to have the support of the Emiratis, the Americans, the Egyptians and the Israelis. He was born in Khan Iunis 62 years ago, and has tried to give back by putting money on the table, even now with humanitarian aid. In recent weeks there have been rumors, and The Economist has presented a providential picture of a character usually seen as a schemer, who was expelled from Al-Fatah and tried in absentia for corruption in 2016 by a Palestinian court. It is possible that Antony Blinken was referring to this when he spoke of a "reformed" ANP to deal with Gaza. It doesn't sound like a very democratic idea, but who cares?
