With the end of the electoral campaign closed, Spanish politics will regain its daily pulse, which is not exactly a good omen. The inability shown by the two major parties to reach agreements and the many red lines that make dialogue difficult will continue, at least until the general elections in December determine whether there will be relief in Moncloa. Politics will continue to be polarized, and everyone has a share of responsibility when it comes to curbing populism, which is always ready to manipulate emotions and fuel tension. To see in the other an enemy.
It won't be easy. Spain has changed. The electorates are not so stable and the PSOE and the PP, in their eagerness to expand towards the center, do not have such defined positions. They don't disagree so much on some of the big issues, but there is no understanding.
"There is no common goal. In the 1980s and until the end of the 20th century, there were many personalities who entered politics because there was a country project that they thought was worth fighting for. Now there isn't even a shared definition of what's going on. There is no project capable of inciting cohesion and they go like a chicken without a head", affirms Rafa Martínez, professor of Political Science at the University of Barcelona.
In politics there is too much tacticianism and red lines are drawn that make negotiation difficult. There are issues so urgent that it seems an obligation for the PSOE and the PP to agree to find a solution. Failure to do so should have electoral consequences and they should fear failure in these negotiations. But the big parties have long ceased to depend on themselves. Other formations to their left and right are behaving like pressure groups that complicate their lives. And they have to strike a balance between their interests, their ideological coherence and the fear of losing support. The scene is so volatile that parties often prefer not to do anything rather than make a mistake, not win or lose. And this year's election cycle complicates everything.
"If you want to come to an agreement with someone, you have to point out the discrepancies, but also the points of consensus, and tell them that if they want we can move on, and if not, let's continue with our differences - underlines Rafa Martínez-. These forever red lines that are set to agree with others do not make much sense. Respect for minorities involves trying to integrate them into the agreements, but it is clear that we have an electorate that is increasingly hooligan and does not forgive it". It is not optimistic. "When a party has led its voters to the extreme, it is almost irrecoverable. He cannot change his speech or he is in danger of being left," he adds.
"It's complicated to reconvene electorates - the director of the Institute of Political and Social Sciences, Gabriel Colomé, agrees. But the border can be extended to other spaces with the speech or the way of doing things. Jordi Pujol and Pasqual Maragall were voted for by people who were not of their ideology but liked the character". Regarding the red lines in pacts with other groups, Colomé points out that the electorate sometimes rewards them, for example if it is with respect to Vox. "The neo-Francoists are like kryptonite, no one comes close to them - he quips - only the PP".
Despite the difficulties in sitting down to negotiate, taking the initiative remains a plus point, it indicates that you want to be part of the solution. And it doesn't necessarily have to come from whoever governs, but part of the canon is that it is up to the strongest to yield more, regardless of whether the negotiation is more or less tough, points out Rafa Martínez. "Consensus implies being willing to compromise. All this is known. It is not practiced because of all the internal and external balances that need to be made and because they have a real panic that the electorate will leave them", points out the political scientist, who warns that when the leaderships are not strong the tendency to close ranks is bigger, so as not to appear weak if they agree with the opponent.
Both Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have critical voices in the party, but Sánchez governs and this reduces internal tension, because he can reward and punish. Feijóo does not rule, but he has this expectation, which gives him a truce. Everything can change this 28-M, if the PSOE wins the elections, and if Isabel Díaz Ayuso obtains a resounding victory in Madrid and decides to start a battle to be the candidate in the general elections. If it happens, it will be from tonight. The campaign has stopped the disputes. Everyone knows that if there are internal wars they lose votes. It happens to the left and to the right, although the conservative voter is usually more practical, Colomé points out.
Polls will continue to set the tone. With elections in sight, parties become tactical. It is not yet time for the PP to consider major agreements that could give the opponent an electoral gain. For the PSOE, the end of the legislature can raise tensions with the partner Unides Podemos, which also makes numbers. "If they want to capitalize on the rise of Yolanda Díaz and continue in the Government, Podemos and Sumar must reach an agreement to go to the general elections together. But it is not clear what will happen, knowing Pablo Iglesias. In a classic communist logic, he prefers to be fewer but united", says Colomé.
Politics is not an exact science but divisions remain and agreements can add up. Parties always make calculations. They should take that into account.
