This Sunday begins in Galicia, with the celebration of the Galician elections, a new electoral cycle in Spain that will continue with the regional elections of the Basque Country and will culminate with the European elections on June 9. Three electoral events before which the parties with representation in the Valencian Community are waiting to draw lessons and, above all, to anticipate where the electoral wave is going in this complicated beginning of the legislature.
It seems that the one most at stake is the national PP (and therefore the Valencian one). And repeating the absolute majority in Galicia was taken for granted in the popular ranks but, just two days before the vote, the result is up in the air. There are many analysts who predict that the loss of a fiefdom like the Galician one, precisely from which Alberto Núñez Feijóo comes, could cause turbulence on Génova Street.
They do not think this way about the Valencian PP, where they do not doubt the party's support for the figure of its regional president and where they do not see anyone "leaving their autonomous community" to propose an alternative to Feijóo
All in all, in the Valencian PP they have done their homework and, at the same time that they have managed to establish a good relationship with the Galician leader, they have managed to establish alliances with the Madrid-born Isabel Díaz Ayuso and with the Andalusian Moreno Bonilla.
Since his investiture, Mazón has gained weight in the party (as demonstrated at the famous Fitur summit) and has established himself as "a reference baron", those around him explain. To argue this, they cite a survey that would place the Alicante leader as the fourth best-known regional president, only surpassed by the two regional leaders of the PP mentioned above and by the socialist Emiliano García Page.
In the PPCV they believe that the socialists and Pedro Sánchez have been skillful in focusing the campaign on whether or not the PP will obtain an absolute majority, instead of focusing on the bad result that all the PSdG polls predict. "What seems clear is that, after his inauguration and his pact with the independentists, the PSOE continues to decline." The CIS places it at around 20% of the votes. In fact, any change goes through the BNG, whose rise would "disguise" the socialist debacle.
In the PSPV they focus precisely on the idea that "the time has come to put an end to the setbacks that Galicia has been suffering for the last 15 years and give it back its future." In the ranks of the Valencian socialists they believe that the result in Galicia can serve to consolidate what happened in the general elections: "Last 23J the Spaniards already said clearly that they wanted progressive policies and this Sunday it will happen again in Galicia."
It would be a relief for the brand of the fist and the rose to save a difficult start to the mandate, with demonstrations in the street and very complicated negotiations with the independentists, with a change in one of the most conservative autonomies.
At Compromís we are looking closely at what happens on 18-F. The party wants this change so that there is another "autonomous president of the plurinational space", but believes that it will not have much impact in the Valencian political arena, unless the loss of the PP's absolute majority is realized and "there are tensions" in the ranks. popular.
Internally, the end of the Galician campaign is expected to negotiate and close the candidacy for the European elections. In principle, with Sumar and regardless of what happens in Sunday's event, sources from the formation explain to this newspaper. "Alone we will not be able to have representation in the European Parliament," explain the same sources, who express their desire for Yolanda Díaz's brand to obtain parliamentary representation.
Regarding the fact that Sumar is present in Galician territory, dividing the vote of the left and competing with a nationalist force like the BNG, they emphasize that the Galician reality is not comparable, since that Sumar space already existed; Yolanda Díaz ran in the 2012 elections to the Galician Parliament. At that time, Alternativa Galega de Esquerda - the electoral coalition between IU (where Díaz was active) and the Anova of Xosé Manuel Beiras, which split from the BNG - left Galician nationalism as the fourth political force.
Thus, they reiterate that the relationship between Compromís and Sumar is based on "bilaterality" and, of course, "non-electoral confrontation", so they understand that Sumar will act in the Valencian Community as it has done in Galicia.
Regarding the Galician elections, however, Compromís draws another lesson. And it is none other than copying the steps of the BNG in the sense of betting on a "less identity-based and more transversal discourse, broadening the base" of its electorate, as the Valencians already achieved in 2015 to the point of fighting the PSPV for hegemony. Something, they point out, that EH Bildu is also successfully doing, as will presumably be seen in the next election of the year.
The BNG has managed to rise from its ashes after very complicated years - it dropped to 8.4% of the votes in the 2016 regional elections - and now they can run for the Presidency of the Xunta.
The Galicians can also be a wake-up call for Vox, which already deflated in the June general elections. The first two electoral dates are not at all promising for the ultra-conservative formation, since in the Basque Country they could even lose their current seat. Luckily, in June, they have the opportunity of the European elections, where in a scenario of a single constituency and low participation they could recover some of their strength. Meanwhile, they have to take refuge in the regional and municipal governments and, from there, look for speakers to stop the presumed fall.
