The overwhelming victory of Donald Trump in the Iowa caucuses has made even more real the prospect for which Europe has been thinking for months: that of a second term of the Republican candidate, probably more effective in terms of his ability to put his plans into practice because, this time, yes, he will know how to make the springs of power work in the institutions of the United States, completely unknown to him when he arrived at the White House in January 2017.
"2024 will be a crucial year. Europe and the West are playing a lot, our democracies and freedoms will be put to the test. Not only in the elections to the European Parliament but also for the presidential elections and the Congress of the United States", warned the Belgian Prime Minister, Alexandre de Croo, on Monday, when he presented in Strasbourg his country's priorities for his turn as European Presidency of the Council. "If 2024 is another 'America first', then more than ever we will have a single Europe. We should not fear this prospect, we should embrace it by building a Europe on more solid, stronger, more sovereign, more autonomous foundations".
From an economic point of view, however, the prospects of a Trump victory on November 5 are clearly negative for Europe, says the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. "If we draw lessons from history, the way he governed during the four years of his mandate is a clear threat [to the European economy]. It is enough to look at its tariff policy, its commitment to NATO or the fight against climate change. In these three areas, in the past, the interests of the United States were not aligned with the Europeans", he pointed out in an interview with French television France 2.
European Commissioner Thierry Breton narrated a few days ago a conversation he witnessed in 2020 between the then American president and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von Der Leyen, in Davos. "You have to understand that if Europe was attacked, we would never help you or support you," the US leader allegedly said in German. It is not clear that those were Trump's exact words - other sources do not remember them that way - but the messages he sent during his presidency were not very different, hence the alarming reactions to his possible re-election in the main European capitals.
This is not the case in Budapest. Although Trump once confused him with the president of Turkey, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the Republican leader have recently developed an intense long-distance bromance that makes defenders of European values and principles stand on end.
De Croo's comments, proposing to embrace rather than fear a second Trump term, are added to a chorus of more optimistic voices who want to see this possibility as an opportunity to deepen European construction. The EU that the Republican would find himself in the event of returning to the White House would be very different from the one that existed seven years ago. His first term was a harsh awakening regarding the reliability of the American ally's commitment to the security of Europe. At the same time, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have pushed the EU to take giant steps in its integration (creation of a massive recovery fund with the issuance of common debt, joint purchase of vaccines, European funding for aid military in Ukraine...). "We learned the lessons" of Trump's first term, repeat European sources in Brussels.
At the same time, with an open war on European territory and Trump's well-known approaches to Ukraine, the consequences of his victory would be more important for the EU, which will not be able to maintain support for Kyiv all by itself. Even with Joe Biden in the White House, the counterweight of Congress has not been enough to maintain aid to the country. The assistance package of 55,000 million euros has been blocked in the Lower House since October.
Although with Biden Europe has healed some wounds from the Trump period, the protectionist policies of the US have reaffirmed the need to advance the strategic autonomy of the EU in all areas. In a few months, reality could put these intentions to the test.
