Esquerra Republicana did not hide its nervousness when President Pedro Sánchez surprised everyone by calling the general elections a few hours after the municipal elections had been held. Things did not go well for the OriolJunqueras match on 28-M and the new date with the polls did not portend an improvement.
The immediate call by President Pere Aragonès to build a pro-independence strategic unit in Madrid, thwarted after a few hours by municipal pacts, did not mitigate the threats they faced: the possible demobilization of pro-independence voters and the flight of leftists, and they needed to stop a downward trend evidenced by the last elections.
ERC currently has 13 deputies in Congress, which gives it the hegemony of independence in Madrid, despite the loss of two seats after the electoral repeat of 2019. Since then the republicans have lost the Catalan elections of 2021, which were won by the PSC, although they were able to govern with Junts, and in the municipal elections they dropped 300,000 votes and lost from first to third position. The party justified the blow in these elections by the increase in abstention by 6.5 points, but the polls for Sunday predict a loss of between three and five deputies. Hegemony is dangerous.
The paradox in relation to what is happening in the rest of Spain is that the electoral situation could place the PSC in first place on the podium in Catalonia after years of the process, and this would constitute another blow for ERC. Those from Junqueras are confident of consolidating the second position, because the opposite would be "very bad news", they admit. But demoscopy reflects a strong growth in Catalonia of Junts and especially of the PP, which could quadruple its results and go from having two to up to eight seats.
To avoid another clash, ERC has designed a pragmatic campaign for the 23-J, with Gabriel Rufián as headliner, which goes well in meetings by sending direct and easy-to-interpret messages. And with a slogan - "Defensa Catalunya" - that sums up its proposal in a positive way and aims to identify its usefulness in contrast to its rivals, PSC, Sumar and Junts. But the problem is to undertake the mission with the wind in your face.
The Republicans have seen the expectations of their opponents on the left flank grow (PSC and above all En Comú Podem, a key ally of Yolanda Díaz) as a result of the polarization with which these elections have been presented (PSOE-Sumar against PP-Vox). Also on the pro-independence side, with Junts always questioning ERC's pragmatic strategy.
His role as a partner in the coalition Government of Sánchez and Díaz conditioned the campaign. The party has displayed a defense of the work done, noting that they have "approved 89% of the legislative work of the Spanish negotiating Government", in the face of what may come, a government of the PP and the far right. A task that they have combined with a non-conformism that has allowed them to question the true progressive character of the PSOE and Sumar.
To seduce the pro-independence voter, ERC has exhibited its alliance with EH Bildu, and the story has circulated between self-criticism and realism: "Esquerra's strategy is possibly not the one that causes the most enthusiasm in the pro-independence world, but it is the only one that is on the table", This pragmatic drift is also being tested this Sunday.
