35 days before 12-M, the Catalan parties are already immersed in an intense campaign, despite the fact that it will not officially begin until the end of April. After the Easter break, the candidates yesterday began to roll out their pre-electoral agenda in various events held in the south of France, Sitges, Sant Joan Despí or Barcelona. In a scenario in which, for now, all the polls place Salvador Illa as the winner and put into discussion the second position, which Junts and ERC would contest. This was reflected in La Vanguardia's survey from two weeks ago, which, although it was done before former president Carles Puigdemont made his candidacy official, almost everyone already took his decision to run for the Catalan elections for granted.
A complicated arithmetic that facilitates the possibility of electoral repetition. The pro-independence parties could end up not getting enough seats and the socialists could not achieve a sufficient result to form a government. If to this is added the vetoes that are being imposed by the parties, the risk of post-electoral deadlock is another factor that must be taken into account, since it would be very difficult to form a new government.
These days before the campaign, President Pere Aragonès is playing hard. At the moment he is leading the initiative and in a few weeks he has presented his "unique" financing proposal for Catalonia, the creation of a ministry for Catalan and tomorrow he will go to the Senate to defend the self-determination referendum under the umbrella of the Constitution that will confront PP barons such as the president of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso or her counterpart from the Community of Valencia, Carlos Mazón.
A start to the pre-campaign with which the Republicans hope to contain the "Puigdemont effect" and cut distances with Illa, who with the polls in favor prefers to keep a low profile and go all out once the electoral contest begins. The Socialists want a campaign without stridency, focusing on the drought, services and "the real concerns of Catalans". This is why, for now, the leader of the PSC has lavished little. Of course, he has rejected Aragonès' proposal to debate with Puigdemont in the south of France, an offer that the president proposed again yesterday with the possibility that it would be two-on-one, but in Catalonia, and hold another face-to-face with Puigdemont.
But from Junts they are reluctant to offer an answer to Aragonès. In the post-convergent formation, they are still not clear what profile will be the one that will face the rest of the candidates in the electoral debates, despite the fact that everything points to Josep Rull being elected. All in all, Puigdemont will be the undisputed protagonist of the Junts campaign and, for this reason, many of the press conferences and meetings will be held in the south of France, where he has moved to live.
The competition between the two major pro-independence parties is expected to be fierce in the coming weeks. Yesterday, during the presentation of the lists, the former president sent a first message to the Republican Government, which he described as "without a north" and "incapable" of giving "a new impetus" to Catalonia, in addition to justifying the exit of the Generalitat. "Time has proved us right", he assured.
These criticisms make future alliances with ERC difficult, once the elections are held. All this, despite the fact that by making his candidacy official he extended his hand to run in alliance with the Republicans, in a new Junts pel Sí. A proposal with which he sought more the rapid opposition of Esquerra to a possible agreement - as it turned out - rather than the desire to have them as allies for the 12-M.
What Junts and ERC do share, for now, is their refusal to support a future Island Government. In the post-convergent ranks, they rule out this possibility, while the Republicans are not ready to reissue the tripartite formula. This is what the vice councilor Sergi Sabrià said, who ruled out making the socialist candidate president weeks ago. The Republicans are reluctant to become the PSC's crutch in the Government of the Generalitat, when they already support the Government of Pedro Sánchez and the City Council of Jaume Collboni in Barcelona.
So if Illa wins the election, but not with a large difference in votes, he could only count on the commons to form a government. At the moment, the socialist leader only puts red lines on future agreements with Vox and with Aliança Catalana, the party of Sílvia Orriols that governs the Consistory of Ripoll and that these days collects signatures to present itself on 12-M, "for its speeches of hate".
In any case, polls predicting a drop in pro-independence parties and candidates' statements about vetoes to future agreements predict a post-electoral scenario of deadlock. The formations are clear about this possibility and that is why some parties have already recommended to their deputies that they return on vacation in the last week of August, in view of a more than likely repeat election in the autumn.
