All the polls published in recent days agree in estimating a victory for EH Bildu in the elections to the Basque Parliament on Sunday, with between 27 and 30 seats, and in placing the PNV close to the nationalist coalition, but behind, with a minimum of 26 and a maximum of 28 parliamentarians. These data are interesting because in all cases they coincide in pointing out a trend: compared to the polls from the first days of the campaign, which reflected a technical tie or even a slight advantage for the PNV, the polls now show growth for EH Bildu.
These surveys have been published between Wednesday, in the case of the CIS, and today, Monday, the last day on which polls are allowed to be published. The most surprising thing is that there are hardly any divergences and the results are practically identical.
Of course, there are hardly any differences when it comes to estimating the correlation of forces regarding the fight between the PNV and EH Bildu. The 40dB survey for El País and that of Sigma Dos for El Mundo are those that give a higher estimate to the nationalist coalition, with 30 and 28-30 seats, respectively, while it is Ikerfel's survey for Vocento that gives it a lower range, 28-27.
In the case of the PNV, both El Mundo and the Gizaker survey for ETB Focus give the jeltzales the lowest range: 26-27 and 26-28, respectively. Vocento estimates 27 seats, and El País and El Español/Crónica vasca agree in estimating 28 seats. The differences, therefore, are very small and the trend reflected in the surveys is similar.
The week that begins, decisive, will be key to tipping the balance in favor of the Jeltzales or the Abertzale coalition. The percentage of undecided people is high, the campaign has been low profile so far and key milestones remain, such as the second ETB debate, this time in Spanish.
As for the third force according to all the polls, the PSE, the polls agree that the socialists have between a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 12 seats, so they could hold the key to governability.
In the case of the PP, only the El Mundo survey, with an estimate of 7-8 seats, places them slightly above the 6-7 parliamentarians that the rest of the surveys give them.
The greatest divergences are seen when reflecting the pulse that Podemos and Sumar maintain for the same electorate, something understandable considering the low percentage of votes they would achieve.
As was seen in the pre-campaign, both parties could be left out of the Basque Parliament. In fact, in the case of Podemos, only the El Mundo survey observes the possibility that they can achieve representation, with 0-1 seats.
In the case of Sumar, there is a clear divergence between the 3 seats that the Ikerfel survey gives them for Vocento and the rest, which place them between 0 and a maximum of 2 parliamentarians.
Finally, Vox could have more options to maintain its seat in the Basque Parliament than was presumed during the pre-campaign. Only ETB Focus clearly places Santiago Abascal's party outside the Chamber, the rest of the polls place them on the limit, with between 0 and 1 seat.
