The confidence index of the commercial sector (ICSC) of Barcelona for 2023 increased compared to the previous year and reached a positive value (0.7 points) at the end of the year, mainly thanks to a large increase in expectations generated, which compensates for the setback of the current situation. This recovery of commercial confidence, which finally leaves behind the difficulties arising from the pandemic and the uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine and the deficit of some supplies, is the main conclusion reached by the analysis department of the Municipal Data Office of Barcelona City Council in the latest report.
The evolution of this indicator, which measures the sentiment, optimistic or pessimistic, that the owners of commercial businesses have regarding the activity, both in the past and in the future, indicates that from the first half of 2020, when outbreak of the covid pandemic and many establishments had to close or restrict activities, until the second semester of 2023 the differential approaches 37 points. And all this despite the fact that in the first half of last year there was a drop of 5.7 points that was compensated for in the second half of 2023.
"After a convulsive period resulting from the health, economic and social crisis linked to the pandemic, we are in a moment of certain commercial bonanza and, above all, of confidence in future prospects", he says, taking into account the report the Trade Councilor of Barcelona City Council, Raquel Gil.
"That local shops show this optimism is a good indicator to guarantee the offer and the willingness of traders to maintain and update their businesses. The 2023 ICSC is a good example of the sector's muscle in the city", adds the councilor.
The detailed analysis by branch of commercial activity reveals that most sectors have a positive confidence index value at the end of the analyzed period. In this sense, the daily non-food trade stands out, with an increase of more than ten points, the automotive sector (8.2) and the leisure and culture sector (7.7). On the other hand, stores dedicated to home furnishings and personal equipment are the only ones that presented negative indices in 2023, especially the first, with a drop of 12.1 points.
Business confidence, along with consumer confidence, is a leading indicator of consumption, a key element of an economy's added demand. Hence its importance in the analysis of the economic situation. In the economy of a city, trade confidence is one of the most relevant sectoral approaches, given the weight that this sector has in employment and in the local gross domestic product (GDP) and also the impact that commercial offer on the quality of the urban space.
In Barcelona, the ICSC is calculated from the survey of commercial activity, with periodicity every six months and from a significant sample of 1,200 businesses in each wave. Confidence indicators are always defined as an average between the retrospective assessment of business dynamics and the future assessment of this dynamic.
