The EiTB Focus survey, one of the most reliable of those published in Euskadi, advances a tight fight between the PNV and EH Bildu in which the role of the PSE would be key. The Jeltzales would lose three seats, remaining at 28, although they would gain an absolute majority with the Socialists, who have already stated that they have no intention of changing their policy of pacts to look to the pro-independence left. The nationalist coalition, meanwhile, would add five seats, up to 26, and reduce its distance with the PNV to two seats - today 10 seats - but it would not be enough to achieve the lehendakaritza.
This survey, carried out based on 1,800 interviews and already with the names of the main candidates on the table, decants on the PNV side the two main unknowns for next spring's elections, for which there is still no date. The first question is which will be the first political force, and the PNV remains there, although with a slim advantage: two seats away from EH Bildu compared to the ten it has today. If Podemos and Sumar ran together, in fact, the distance would be just one seat, since the distribution of parliamentarians would change.
The second big unknown has to do with whether PNV and PSE will reach an absolute majority. Once again, the EiTB Focus survey advances a scenario in which the two parties would achieve that majority, in this case, thanks to the rise of two representatives by the PSE (it would go from 10 to 11). The two formations, in fact, would reach 40 seats, two above the majority (38)
The scenario drawn by this survey, in any case, is very tight. The difference between PNV and EH Bildu would be at its historical minimum and the Jeltzales, despite achieving their two main objectives (being the first force and gaining an absolute majority) and having the possibility of continuing to govern, would receive an important corrective, especially in Gipuzkoa, where EH Bildu would become the first force, and in Álava, where there would be a technical tie between the two main Basque political formations. In Bizkaia, in the PNV stronghold, the Jeltzales would win comfortably, although the distance would be reduced by half, from six to three seats.
As for the PSE, they would be the formation that rises the most, after EH Bildu, and they would maintain their role as arbiter of Basque politics. It will be up to you to decide whether the next lehendakari is from the PNV or EH Bildu, a question about which there is little doubt: the socialists are in favor of maintaining their agreements with the PNV and only a debacle of the former could lead to a different scenario. .
The PP, for its part, would remain in its current six seats and there would not be, according to this survey, a revulsive effect due to the attendance of Javier de Andrés. Also looking at the space on the right, Vox would lose its only representative in the Basque Chamber and would disappear from parliamentary life in Euskadi.
Regarding the space of the federalist left, however, there are more doubts. EiTB Focus has raised its survey taking into account two possible scenarios: that Podemos and Sumar, also together with Ezker Anitza-IU and Equo, attend together or that they do so separately. The first option is the most probable and is the one that shows that correlation of 28-26 seats between PNV and EH Bildu; As for Podemos and Sumar, it grants two seats to the purple formation and one to those of Yolanda Díaz, compared to the 6 representatives that Podemos currently has in the Basque Parliament.
If they participated in a coalition, they would win five seats, according to this survey and, as a result of the change in the distribution of parliamentarians, PNV and PSE would lose one seat each formation. This possibility, however, is extremely unlikely and what the survey reflects is that, by participating separately, they could well be left out of the Basque Parliament, since they would enter in an agonizing way.
