The president of the Junta de Andalucía and candidate for re-election by the PP, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, would obtain a clear victory in the elections to the Andalusian Parliament on June 19 and would stay between eight and six seats away from the absolute majority, set at 55 deputies, according to the first barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) on said elections made public this Thursday. The survey predicts a technical tie between the popular candidate and the sum of all the lefts, which could be broken by Cs, which would be saved by its presence in the Andalusian Chamber, or by Vox, which could grow between 5 and 9 seats.
This survey comes three days after the one prepared by the Andalusian Studies Center Foundation (Centra), dependent on the Board, which was published last Monday, May 30, and which already left the PP candidate six seats from the absolute majority and with more seats than the entire left put together.
In the case of the survey of the body led by José Félix Tezanos, the sum of the entire left in its highest bracket would be 48 deputies, right in the middle of the bracket predicted for the president of the Board.
Specifically, Moreno Bonilla would obtain 35.6% of the votes, practically ten points more than in the previous elections held in December 2018, which would bring him a growth of between 21 and 23 seats.
The PSOE, led by Juan Espadas, would lose more than two and a half points in voting intention compared to 2018, although it could maintain a representation similar to that obtained then with a range of between 32 and 36 deputies.
According to the barometer, Vox, with Macarena Olona at the helm, would take a step forward by placing itself as the third force in the Andalusian Parliament with just over four points more than in 2018 in voting intention to reach between 17 and 21 deputies, between six and nine more than then. Those of the extreme right aspire to enter the next Andalusian executive and according to the results of the CIS it is clear that their votes would be necessary to form an absolute majority of the right but Moreno would have enough with his abstention to achieve the investiture.
The candidate for re-election could even rely on Ciudadanos to get more votes than the sum of all the leftists, since the oranges, led by Juan Marín, would manage to save their representation in Parliament with a range of 1 to 3 deputies to despite a collapse of almost 14 points in voting intentions.
The formations to the left of the PSOE also suffer a significant setback to the extent that the two brands that are presented separately on this occasion barely reach 12 deputies, when in a single candidacy they obtained 17 in 2018. Thus, the coalition Por Andalucía , led by Inmaculada Nieto, would obtain almost 10% of the votes and between 9 or 10 deputies; while Adelante Podemos, by Teresa Rodríguez, would receive less than 5% of the votes and two deputies.
The CIS survey also admits the possibility that the provincial formation Jaén Deserves More obtains a deputy in the Andalusian Parliament with 0.7 of the estimated vote.
