Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main gas that warms the atmosphere, from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) have increased again in 2023. Everything indicates that they will reach record levels this year, according to research from The Global Carbon Project.
The forecast is that emissions of fossil origin will reach 36.8 billion tons in 2023, which represents an increase of 1.1% compared to 2022. They are also expected to increase in all types of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). These data are collected in the report The annual Global Carbon Budget, published in the journal Earth System Science Data.
Although some regions of the planet are reducing these emissions - such as Europe and the US - globally they continue to grow. Its authors warn that global action to reduce its use does not follow the path to avoid dangerous climate change; It is not being widespread or deep enough to stop global warming.
The result is that “the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is rapidly increasing, causing additional climate change and increasingly serious and increasing impacts,” says Le Quéré, a researcher at the University of East Anglia and co-author of the report. “Countries should decarbonize their economies faster than they are currently doing to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.” Emissions from fossil energy are added to those from changes in land use (forest, agriculture). Therefore, total emissions will be 40.9 billion tons in 2023.
Emissions from changes in land use are produced mainly by deforestation, but also by the degradation of ecosystems, according to Pep Cañadell, executive director of The Global Carbon Project. The study detects a slight decrease in these emissions, which is “good news,” according to Cañadell, who clarifies: “although deforestation has decreased a little, the opposite flow (forestation and reforestation) is still small and cannot compensate for the first".
Forest masses have the capacity to act as sinks and absorb carbon from the atmosphere. However, due to deforestation their balance is still negative: they release more CO₂ than they can absorb. These experts estimate that there is a 50% probability that global warming will consistently exceed (over several years) the 1.5°C temperature increase within seven years.
As a result, scientists argue that the remaining carbon budget, and therefore the time to meet the 1.5°C target and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, is rapidly running out. “Right now it seems inevitable that we will exceed the 1.5ºC limit established in the Paris Agreement,” says Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, from the Exeter Global Systems Institute, who led the study. Pep Cañadell explains why: “seven years are not enough to decarbonize the world economy.”
Cañadell explains that carbon accumulates in the atmosphere for thousands of years and that is why the climate will continue to warm even if we lower the number of emissions - although, at a slower rate -. Therefore, we need to not only reduce CO₂ emissions, but also its concentration in the atmosphere. “We must reduce these emissions as quickly as possible, to lower the concentration, and we must also increase the use of renewable energies so that they take the place of fossil fuels. They are two changes that must happen very quickly and at the same time.”
“Stabilizing the climate depends on us. There is nothing magical about that 1.5ºC threshold; “The current 1.2ºC is already a lot,” Cañadell summarizes. The expert warns that warming has no limit: it can reach 6ºC if we do not act. “It's never too late, we have to try to stop it; and if we cannot do it now, we will have to do it later with the challenge of a greater cut. If not, the warming will never stop.”
