Per capita income in Spain will reduce by 17.8% until 2049 due to the long-term effects of climate change that humanity has already caused until now, according to a study by the Climate Impact Research Institute in Potsdam (Germany). which is presented today in the scientific journal Nature. This figure places the Spanish economy as the most affected in Europe by climate change.
Extremadura will be the most affected community, with a decrease in per capita income of 21.5%, followed by Andalusia (20.3%) and the Community of Madrid (19.9%). For Catalonia, a reduction of 17.6% has been estimated, close to the average for Spain as a whole.
These data do not represent a forecast of economic decline, but rather the variation with respect to what would occur in the absence of climate change, the researchers point out. Growth from other activities could therefore offset losses due to the environmental crisis in some regions. But the research concludes that climate change represents a brake on economic development.
“In the public debate, emphasis has been placed on how costly it is to protect the climate. Much less has been said about how expensive the alternative would be. In our research we show that protecting the climate is much cheaper than not doing it,” states Leonie Wenz, director of the research, in an email to La Vanguardia.
On a global scale, the losses derived from climate change emissions made so far are estimated at 38 trillion dollars annually by the end of the 2040s. The bill is six-fold the six trillion dollars that measures would cost to maintain the global increase in temperature below two degrees compared to the pre-industrial period, as established in the Paris Agreement.
The damage will be distributed unevenly, and will be greater in equatorial and tropical regions than in high latitudes. The only four countries where an increase in per capita income is expected thanks to climate change are Iceland (with an increase of 8.0%), Canada (7.9%), Finland (3.5%) and Russia (3. 3%).
“The countries that will suffer the most from the damage already committed [already caused but not yet manifested] are the least responsible for climate change and those that have the fewest resources to adapt to it,” write the authors of the research in Nature. The quartile of countries that have contributed the least to climate change so far will suffer a 40% greater decline in per capita income than the quartile of countries that have contributed the most.
The climate change parameter with the greatest impact on the economy will be the increase in average temperatures, which affects agricultural productivity and labor productivity, and to which 70% of the reduction in per capita income is attributed.
Another 25% is attributed to the greater variability in temperatures - the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the year - which also affects agricultural productivity, as well as the physical and mental health of citizens.
The remaining 5% is attributed to changes in precipitation, with detrimental effects on agriculture and the mobility of citizens, and also due to the consequences of flooding. The Mediterranean region and the central regions of South America will be the most affected in the world by changes in the volume of precipitation.
The 17.8% reduction in per capita income expected in Spain exceeds that of any other European country but is lower than that of African countries, which could lead to an increase in migratory pressure towards Europe.
The researchers have not included in the analysis other parameters of climate change that also affect the economy but for which it is not yet possible to make precise estimates, such as sea level rise, the effects of heat waves and the increase of the number and intensity of tropical cyclones. Therefore, they point out that their estimates are conservative and that the real impact of climate change on the economy will predictably be greater.
“With this research we hope to contribute to a better understanding of how climate affects the economy. This is important to help governments, banks and companies include climate risks in their macroeconomic forecasts,” says Leonie Wenz.
Previous research in the emerging field of climate econometrics has offered results with a high level of uncertainty because the consequences will vary depending on the actions taken from now on. Furthermore, there are no reliable models on the economic consequences of some parameters and uncertainty increases the longer term the predictions are made.
To limit these sources of uncertainty, researchers have limited themselves to the effects of the emissions made so far, have restricted the analysis to the parameters whose effects on the economy are best studied and offer a first estimate of damage 26 years into the future.
“These short-term damages are the result of past emissions,” says Leonie Wenz. “We have to cut our emissions drastically and immediately. Otherwise, the economic losses will be even greater in the second half of the century, and will reach up to 60% [reduction in per capita income] on a global average in 2100.”
