Approving the first part of the pension reform was the easiest part. It is where the increase in pay was indexed directly to inflation, so that in the very inflationary 2022, pensioners were the only ones in Spain who did not lose purchasing power. Carrying out the second part of the reform was already more difficult, not in vain that is where the sustainability of the system had to be ensured and with the retirement of the "baby boom" generation, the equation was tremendously complicated.
The solution adopted by the Minister of Inclusion and Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, came from the income side, which increases in three ways. The first is through the intergenerational equity mechanism (MEI), with a price increase of 0.6% that will increase to 1.2%. The second additional source of income is an increase in the maximum contribution bases and the third is an additional charge on wages above this maximum base.
With this approach, it was clear that high wages were going to experience an increase in the price, but now a study by the Bank of Spain allows us to see in detail which workers and companies will be the most affected. The result is that those who will experience a greater rise in the contribution are high incomes, middle-aged workers, the most qualified and large companies, with special incidence in the financial sector industry.
From the outset, the study indicates that there are 1.3 million workers who in 2021 contributed to the maximum base (4,495 euros per month), which represents 6.8% of the total affiliates. Among those most affected by the increase in contributions, there are more men than women (8.2% compared to 5.1%) and more middle-aged people. The percentage of contributions for the maximum base exceeds 8% in the age group between 44 and 63 years, while it does not reach 3% among those under 30 years of age. The difference is also palpable according to the level of studies, from 19.3% of those with higher qualifications to 1.3% with basic education.
The study shows how the increases in contributions will be concentrated in the highest part of the income distribution. The increase in the effective rate of contributions will vary between 0.8 percentage points (pp) and 1.6 pp in 2025 up to a range of between 1.2 pp and 11.3 pp in 2050. Going into detail, it appears that gross salaries of around 60,000 euros would increase their social contributions in the greatest proportion if we stop at 2025, but if we reach 2050, it would be salaries of 80,000 euros that would increase their contributions the most.
Another element that stands out is that large companies will be the ones that will face the greatest increases in labor costs due to this increase in contributions. Those with more than 500 workers accumulate 13.8% with the maximum quota while the percentage is reduced to 2.4% in those with one to nine workers. And by sectors, the most affected is the financial services industry, with 54.4%, followed at a distance by business management consultancy and activities related to computer services and health.
The study also evaluates the increase in collection that this increase in Social Security contributions will entail. It sets it at 0.6% of GDP in 2030 and 0.9% of GDP in 2050, which is in line with the estimates of Airef and Fedea, and below the calculations of the Government, which foresees an increase of 1.1% of GDP in 2050.
