The regional elections in May are as enigmatic as they are transcendental. Government and opposition are at stake not only territorial power but also the winner's poster before the decisive legislative elections at the end of the year. For this reason, the million dollar question focuses on knowing whether on May 28 the voters will vote thinking about the management of their autonomous community or they will project their position on the general issues of Spain in the autonomous communities. And hence the speech of each regional president.
The last regional macro-survey of the CIS indicated that between a third and more than 40% of those consulted will cast their vote prioritizing “the general issues of Spain”. However, as the margins of error in the survey are very high in some communities (due to the small size of the sample), only Aragón, Canarias, Castilla La Mancha, Comunitat Valenciana, Madrid or Murcia offer more reliable indicators. In the rest, where the margins of error are above six or seven points, the declared vote advantage of the PSOE (Asturias, the Balearic Islands, Navarra and La Rioja) or the PP (Cantabria or Extremadura) could easily be neutralized and in some cases even be reversed. For now, these are the indicators:
The victory of Isabel Díaz Ayuso seems inexorable. It not only doubles the intention to vote for the PSOE (and triples that of Más Madrid). In addition, 38% of the people of Madrid will vote thinking about "the general issues of Spain": that is, they will presumably pronounce themselves on the ghostly "threats to territorial integrity" that, according to the right, supposes the continuity of the social democrat Pedro Sánchez at the helm of the government. And to this we must add another decisive indicator: almost 50% of voters will vote more based on the candidate than on his own ideology. In other words, a plebiscite on Ayuso.
It is true that Madrid presents the highest rates of dissatisfaction with healthcare, education or social services. But that community is among those where it is easier to find a job or as the one that provides "more facilities to start a business." In this way, the “hell” of primary care or nursing homes during the pandemic is buried under the hypnotic mirage of the neoliberal paradise and its low tax pressure.
The situation could not be more uncertain in Valencia. With an advantage of just 1.2 points over the PP in direct vote (but with a margin of error that could leave the popular five points ahead), Ximo Puig's PSOE faces one of the electorates that will grant the highest priority to Spanish politics when deciding their vote. On the contrary, less than 50% of Valencians will choose their ballot thinking about their own issues and, furthermore, close to 54% will vote for an acronym and only 32% will do so for a candidate.
At the same time, satisfaction with healthcare reaps a scratched pass in Valencia, while education and social services achieve discreet notes. In the end, everything will depend on the sum of blocks: PP and Vox, on the one hand, and PSOE, Compromís and Podemos, on the other. But the projection is not conclusive there either. Although in 2019 the left led the right by 1.5 points, the conservatives scratched an advantage of one tenth in the general elections held on the same day.
Emiliano García-Page should easily win the regional elections in May. His advantage over the PP in declared votes is 16 points, according to the CIS. However, the small size of the constituencies in that region leads one to assume that the PSOE's potential allies, Unidas Podemos, will not win a seat and their votes (7% in 2019) will be lost to the left-wing bloc.
For this reason, the socialist candidate needs to achieve the absolute majority alone to govern (four years ago he obtained it with 44% of the votes). But his community is the one that will take state issues into account the most (49%) when voting. And the conservative bloc obtained almost 56% of the votes in the 2019 general elections. For this reason, García-Page's best asset is himself: more than 55% approve of his management (and 46% of Manchegos will vote on 28 May to a candidate, above the acronym), but Page needs to keep in tune on state issues with the center-right voters who have been supporting him. That explains his acid criticism of Pedro Sánchez's policy towards Catalonia.
With almost 60% approval, the socialist Javier Lambán is the best valued president according to the CIS macro survey. In addition, he leads the PP by almost 12 points in declared vote (although the margin of error of the sample admits a tie between both parties). Lambán's problem is that the left-wing bloc and the center-right bloc are practically tied in Aragon (with a one-seat advantage for the conservatives in the last elections).
The hinge is embodied by the Aragonese Party, center-right and furiously anti-Catalan (but incompatible with Vox's centralism). Lambán's options are, therefore, to keep the PAR as an ally. And that explains his relentless discourse with the independence movement.
The CIS macro survey gives an advantage of almost ten points to the conservative bloc over the left-wing parties. In addition, 41% of Murcians will vote thinking about issues at the state level and 51% will opt for a party, regardless of the candidate. In the 2019 regional elections, the center and the right gathered 54% of the votes, and in the general ones, 62%. There are territories where everything is quite predictable and the Region of Murcia is one of them.
