There are four weeks left until the Catalan elections and the scenario is more uncertain than it seems. Although the polls agree on a victory for the PSC and a more or less tight tie between ERC and Junts, the distance that may result between all of them will be decisive for the new phase that has already opened in Catalonia after the process and even for the future by Pedro Sánchez.
For the first time in 20 years, the PSC has the option to govern. That does not mean that the independence movement stops playing a key role. Even if Salvador Illa were to win the presidency of the Generalitat, he would have to do so with more or less tacit support from at least one pro-independence party, as already happened with Pasqual Maragall, who governed with ERC. The socialists believe that the ERC of now is not the one of then and that it has more government experience, which is why they trust in reaching agreements.
But this is a three-way battle, between socialists, republicans and Junts. Whatever the result, ERC will be a key piece, since it is in a position to reach an agreement with the other two vertices of the triangle. This transversality complicates the campaign due to the difficulty of satisfying border voters with the PSC and with Junts at the same time.
Although Pere Aragonès insists on vindicating the management of the Generalitat, the Republicans cannot avoid a certain obsession with Junts. Taking the scepter from Convergència as the hegemonic party of Catalan identity has been ERC's greatest motivation for years. Aragonès did not resist the temptation to challenge Carles Puigdemont for prominence by going to “troll” the PP in the Senate on account of the amnesty law and ended up harming the PSOE. A strategy not shared by Oriol Junqueras, who has gone to Congress several times to support the law and the bloc that votes for it with his presence.
The polls show a battle between ERC and Junts for second place. If the Republicans win, they will be in a position to establish their alliances with the socialists in different institutions. If they lose it, we will have to see how they digest it internally. Forcing a repeat election could harm them more. The president would be weakened and Junqueras would remain disqualified and could not be a candidate.
If Junts won, the Republicans would have no choice but to support Puigdemont's return to the Palau de la Generalitat. No poll shows the former president as the winner, but an earthquake like the one that could cause his return before March 12 would alter everything. Puigdemont has assured that he will not return until the investiture session, once the amnesty has been approved, but he has changed his mind many times.
The leader of Junts exploits a campaign with epic overtones about his “restitution” as president, although it is not clear what he would do if he regained office. Puigdemont will not participate in any electoral debate with the justification that he cannot set foot in Catalonia, although in principle he could do so on equal terms on the radio, for example. The former president preserves his figure above the daily political struggle. His candidacy has marked the pre-campaign and it is possible that he will monopolize attention until March 12.
If Junts is left out of the power equation after the elections, that is, if some type of agreement is produced between socialists and republicans that leaves Puigdemont's party in the opposition, that could have consequences in Congress. The PSOE hopes, however, that Puigdemont will approve the state budget regardless of the result in Catalonia to prevent the progressive majority achieved in the Constitutional Court from turning its back on the amnesty law or a PP government from hindering its application.
For Sánchez it would be a lifeline for Illa to preside over the Generalitat, whether or not with the help of the commons. A good result in Catalonia allows it to better face the European elections, but above all it gives it ammunition to fight the PP campaign against the amnesty. Alberto Núñez Feijóo will also be able to show a good result due to the absorption of what remains of Ciudadanos, but the PP will continue to be smaller in Catalonia.
If the PSC clearly prevails, Sánchez can open the melon of regional financing, which the Catalan socialists have been negotiating for months with Minister María Jesús Montero, with a view to having a proposal that the leader of the PSOE wants to contribute to dismantling arguments that served to promote the process, although it is not “singular” or Basque-style financing, as the independence movement claims.
The 12-M event begins as a three-way fight, but it is foreseeable that in the last week it will become polarized between two options and this phenomenon can dismantle the polls' forecasts. The useful vote will be concentrated between the non-independence party represented by Illa and the one in favor of secession, be it ERC or Junts, with greater tension between both poles if it is Puigdemont. Despite the fact that the process is losing ground in the public debate and Catalonia has entered a new, more possible phase for the independence parties, the national axis has had and will continue to have a decisive influence on Catalan politics, a reflection of its society, and will be decisive in one way or another in the next government of the Generalitat.
