The set of polls published and hidden in the offices of the different Valencian parties reiterate that, in the absence of the appointment approaching and there is electoral drive, there is a technical tie. Although some polls already place the PP of Carlos Mazón ahead (Gesop for Prensa Ibérica and SocioMétrica for El Español), the truth is that the null distance between popular and socialists make the result of their possible post-electoral partners key to tipping the balance .
It seems that Compromís is resisting after the judicial setback and the forced departure of Mónica Oltra and the forced renewal of leadership (with the dismissal of one of the key pieces of the first Compromís including Mireia Mollà). But, how is Vox in the Valencian Community?
It has not been an easy debut for the formation at the extreme of the ideological axis. There were well-known resignations such as that of the parliamentarian Rebeca Serna, who became non-attached and resignations of the first to change in Les Corts Valencianes, such as that of the doctor Vicent Roglá and David Muñoz, who is now vice-secretary of Organization of Vox in Castellón .
The bad relations that exist between the only two Vox mayors in the Valencia City Council who attend separate events and have even had problems appointing the advisor that corresponds to them due to the electoral results obtained is no secret.
All in all, it is a party very accustomed to washing dirty laundry at home with a very hierarchical structure. In fact, its calendar for the election of both mayors -in most of the Valencian parties the names are already being known- as well as candidates for the regional elections depends on Madrid. Thus, every time those responsible in the different provinces are asked about it, they refer to what the national president, Santiago Abascal, said in his day, who spoke of the end of the year.
Thus, despite the struggle that may exist between the different leaders to assume the electoral poster, it does not seem that there will be great commotions once the national leader makes a decision.
After the crisis of the departure of Macarena Olona -who, due to her origins in Alicante, was considered as a possible candidate for the Generalitat Valenciana-, the party seems to be stabilizing again and trying to resurface, increasing political tension in Congress and in the streets . A few days ago Enric Juliana wrote that Vox is not dead and that, according to some estimates, the far-right party would be in a position to defend its results in the last general elections: 3.6 million votes (15% of the vote cast) and 52 seats.
Although it is never good to extrapolate results, the November 2019 elections do allow us to see the potential of training in the Valencian Community. It was these elections where Vox achieved its best results with 18% of the votes (above the national average) and 468,134 ballots.
A figure far removed from the 10.7% of the regional ones (281,608 votes) and the 3.98% of the local ones (91,768 supports) that were held that same year. Precisely, the scenario of joining regional with local does not suit the far-right formation.
For this reason, to try to reverse this situation, a process of territorial implantation began some time ago with information tables in many municipalities. According to training sources, "membership is rising in recent months: in Valencia there are more than 5,000, in Alicante, 3,500 and in Castellón, 1,000." Now it remains to convert that affiliation into local candidacies. Despite the repeated requests of this newspaper, the organization has not wanted to provide data on how many lists are intended to be presented, simply, it is pointed out that more candidacies will be registered in the Electoral Board than three and a half years ago now.
Despite this, there are localities where support for the ultra-right could already be seen in the general elections with important results in some territories. The province where Vox received the highest percentage of support was Alicante, with 19.81% being the third political force, far behind Unidas Podemos and Compromís.
In regions such as Vega Baja -the northernmost of the Valencian Community- it fell just over 1,000 votes from the PP with 25.71% of the votes, winning in towns such as San Fulgencio. In Alicante city it fell to 18.77% and in the Valencian-speaking regions it has already lost steam, being surpassed in the Marina Alta by Unidas Podemos.
Although in the province of Castellón it obtained a higher percentage of support (18.77%) than in that of Valencia (17.83%), there were curious results. The scrutiny in a region such as Camp de Túria with 21.28% of the votes was especially significant, a short distance from the winner and being the force with the most votes in towns such as Nàquera, Serra or San Antonio.
This region is one of the areas with the highest per capita income. It is not surprising because if you look at the results that Vox obtained in the general elections in the city of Valencia (16.9% of the votes), the three districts where the ultra-right surpassed the PSOE and became the second political force were Ciutat Vella , L'Eixample and Pla del Real, the wealthiest in the city.
Now it will be necessary to see how many of those votes remain in Vox in a regional scenario or go to another party. It should not be forgotten that, according to the CIS post-election survey, 40.2% of those who voted for Vox in the last regional elections if they did not vote for the extreme right, they would vote for the PP.