What do Spaniards expect from the future? The main answer, which according to the CIS is shared by more than 70% of those consulted, is coincident: many changes. But the division emerges over the nature of these transformations: almost 40% believe that the changes will be positive, while more than 35% think they will be negative. The majority of those under 24 years of age think that the changes will be positive. And this correlation is repeated among those over 65 years of age. On the other hand, the intermediate generations (25 to 54 years old) are more pessimistic and both their positive and negative forecasts register similar percentages.
The problem for Spanish democracy is that negative perceptions are dominant when it comes to future trust in the main institutions. For example, almost half of those consulted (and 60% of conservative voters) assure that in five years they will have less confidence in political parties than now. Of course, the left-wing electorate reflects fewer negative figures: only a third of them believe that they will distrust parties more in the future.
Trust in the Government does not fare very well either: 33% indicate that, in five years, they will trust the Executive less than now, compared to only 17% who affirm that they will trust more. The negative rates are growing disturbingly among PP voters (45%) and, above all, Vox voters (59%). Half of the latter also say that, within five years, they will trust Parliament less and, above all, the press, radio or television. That is, the ultra electorate is committed to living in an informational comfort zone that allows them to remain installed in their alternative reality (with a future in which climate change would play a marginal role).
On the other hand, the geopolitical vision of the majority of Spaniards remains within parameters of commendable lucidity. For example, almost 70% of those surveyed are very or quite concerned about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And although this rate is 18 points less than at the beginning of the invasion, we must keep in mind that the Russian aggression occurred almost two years ago and that the current scenario incorporates other conflict zones, such as Palestine. It should be noted that 37% of the ultra electorate does not feel concerned about a possible victory of the Russian autocrat and its implications for democratic Europe.
Finally, the insight of the Spanish when it comes to interpreting the international scene can be seen in their forecasts about future hegemonic actors. While less than a third predict greater future influence from the United States or Russia, more than 72% point to China, and almost 50% to the Arab world. Regarding the role of Europe, 35% foresee greater influence, compared to almost 62% who predict the same (31%) or even less influence (30%).
Now, not all are pessimistic forecasts. One of the positive notes reflected in the CIS survey is related to gender equality: almost 81% of those surveyed foresee more women in positions of responsibility within a decade. A much-needed change in view of the results of the traditional model.
