With gas reserves close to 90%, the countries of the European Union can rest easy this winter. But for the next one, the horizon is not so clear, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, warned this Monday. The gas cuts that Russia can carry out, less clement weather or an increase in world demand, with China moving away from its restrictive anti-covid policy, can lead to greater difficulties.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), "next winter may be even more complicated." The same organization, Von der Leyen pointed out at a press conference, warns that despite the actions that have been taken so far, the European Union may face a gap of "up to 30,000 million cubic meters of gas next year." ”. The initiatives that have recently been approved can cover “a part”, but “more must be done”, argued the German policy. According to the latest available data for 2021, consumption in the EU was 412,000 cubic metres, although in a very different international context, and without any containment measure, as now.
Among the scenarios being considered, it is possible that Russia further cuts off the supply of gas to the Twenty-seven; the fact that China, after ending its zero covid policy, will increase demand to pre-pandemic levels, in addition to the fact that the weather is unknown (this autumn was extremely clement in much of Europe, favorable for filling warehouses ) are issues of concern for the winter of 2023-2024.
In the short term, von der Leyen urged action. Among them, increasing the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as he has done with the US (country with which he signed a commitment to increase purchases), also with other partners, including Qatar. “This year we have had up to 130,000 million cubic meters of LNG. Therefore, we have to further intensify our collaboration, ”he argued.
But gas is not the future, Von der Leyen recalled. Starting next year, 12 billion cubic meters of gas will be replaced by renewables, with the aim of adding 7.5 billion more with additional measures.
The IEA believes that to prevent the EU from not having enough to warm itself next year and at the same time speed up the energy transition, an additional investment of €100 billion is needed. With them, buildings could be renovated and improve energy efficiency, replace gas heating with heat pumps and “massively” increase the use of renewable energy.
In this sense, Von der Leyen admitted that more investments will be necessary and reiterated his intention to propose the creation of "a sovereign wealth fund", as he had already proposed in recent days to prevent European industry from losing competitiveness in the fight for the ecological transition. Also as a clear response to the Inflation Reduction Act announced by the United States, which has strained transatlantic relations.
For Von der Leyen, the preparation for the coming winter “starts now”. For this reason, he asked the countries to approve as soon as possible the possibility of making joint purchases of gas and the plan to accelerate renewables.
Two proposals that are waiting to be approved by the energy ministers today in a new emergency meeting. But these regulations will not have a final green light until there is an agreement on the limit to the price of gas. "I really hope that we can find a solution," requested the president of the community Executive.
Energy holders will meet again with the idea that the fifth time is lucky, with prices in the Dutch benchmark index (TTF) rising, due to increased demand due to a wave of polar cold that is affecting much of Europe.
However, the countries remain divided. As in all negotiations, for the common good, everyone expects a little to give in even if they are not completely happy, diplomatic sources admit. The idea is to try to find a consensus after months of tug of war.
There are several proposals on the table. One of them is to limit the megawatt hour in the Dutch TTF to 220 euros and a difference of 35 euros in the price of LNG. A position a little further from the proposal by the European Commission, which placed the megawatt hour at 275 euros, which achieved a practically unanimous refusal among the countries three weeks ago. However, other countries such as Poland, Belgium or Italy ask that the limit be closer to 160 euros.
