In a context of slowdown in the manufacturing sector and the burden on exports caused by the low growth of neighboring countries, tourism comes to the rescue of the Spanish economy. The data released today from the INE show that tourist spending grew by 16% in July, and the General Council of Economists expects that it will be the tourist activity that will allow it to maintain positive growth in the third quarter.
"It is expected that the tourist season will last until September and, to a lesser extent, October, with higher quality tourism, with a higher average expenditure per tourist", affirm the economists in the Financial Observatory published this morning. In this way, they maintain the growth forecast of 2.3% of the economy for 2023, waiting for how tourism evolves in the months of August and September.
The thesis of the General Council of Economists is that tourism should take over from exports that in the first part of the year have driven Spanish growth. Now it is time to face the repercussions of the low growth of the European countries, with a second quarter with Germany, which is moving between technical recession and stagnation, and the weak growth of Italy (0.6%), France (0.9 %) and the United Kingdom (0.4%) in the second quarter of the year.
On the other hand, the good performance of the first half of the year leads the General Council of Economists to revise the deficit forecast downwards, which stands at 3.8-4% this year, although it warns that it will depend on the effect it has on the same the increase in financial expenses derived from the increase in public debt and interest rates, and also from the impact that the aging of the population has on the evolution of pensions.
With respect to interest rates, he sees it as probable that the European Central Bank will increase them by a quarter of a point at its next meeting, up to 4.5%, to control inflation that is still very high in the euro zone. The interannual figure for July remains stuck at 5.3%, when it was expected that it would continue with its moderation. A piece of information that feeds the ECB's options to further increase rates. In any case, it may be that these rate hikes are already in their final stretch, as the vice-president of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, stated yesterday.
On the other hand, the General Council of Economists maintains its forecast of ending the year with an unemployment rate of 11.8%. To do this, they are based on the fact that the unemployment figures have maintained a decline since January and it is expected that the effects of the end of the tourist season on employment will be offset by other sectors, such as education.
