Israel has negotiated with the United States, its main financier and protector, the entry of troops into Rafah, in the south of the Strip, in exchange for restraint in the military response to Iran's attack last Saturday, according to the American portal published this Thursday. Axios. "The two sides agreed on the shared goal of seeing Hamas defeated in Rafah," the White House confirmed in a statement late last night.
President Joe Biden has warned in recent weeks against Beniamin Netanyahu's desire to enter Rafah militarily to deal what he considers a blow to the last strongholds of Hamas in the Strip. The United States considers that there is no real possibility of evacuating the population of Rafah before a military operation, so the action would significantly increase the figure of nearly 34,000 Palestinian deaths since the Israeli Defense Forces entered Gaza. Now, however, Washington has changed its position, willing to negotiate the operation with Netanyahu. According to the same Axios portal, at the Israeli war cabinet meeting on Monday night there was serious discussion about issuing the order to attack Iran, but the same night the decision to wait was communicated to Washington.
Senior Israeli and American officials held a videoconference meeting yesterday afternoon to discuss the Rafah exchange for Iran. The North American side was headed by the national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, and the Israeli side, by his counterpart Tzachi Hanegbi and the Minister for Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer. Brett McGurk, presidential envoy to the Middle East, was the second most important representative of the United States. National security spokesman Jack Kirby confirmed to the press yesterday afternoon that the meeting was taking place.
The origin of the Americans' change of heart about the Israeli incursion in Rafah lies in their desire to prevent the response to Iran from inflaming the region and triggering an uncontrollable conflict. Israeli containment of Tehran would be the bargaining chip for entry into Rafah.
Washington and its Western allies prefer the route of sanctions against Iran, but the truth is that this has proven increasingly difficult as a means of pressure. The Financial Times newspaper published this Thursday that Iranian oil exports are at their highest point in six years thanks to purchases made by China, but according to Washington analysts, Joe Biden does not want to take sanctions to the maximum, in order to avoid an “inflationary chokehold on global oil supply.” Biden does not want a conflict that could lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which between 25% and 30% of the oil extracted in the world circulates. An action of this type would cause a significant rise in crude oil prices and more inflation, something that could harm Biden's candidacy on November 5.
Iran, for its part, has raised its tone. Ahmad Haghtalab, head of the Nuclear Security division of the Revolutionary Guard, warned Israel that it will change its “nuclear doctrine” if Tel Aviv ends up attacking its nuclear facilities. In that case, he said, “the [Israeli] regime's nuclear facilities will be targeted.
The deployment in the last few hours of soldiers and artillery in the vicinity of the southern border of the Gaza Strip would seem to corroborate that the Palestinians of Rafah have effectively become, and as the Qatari portal Al Araby al Jadeed pointed out, “the currency change with which the United States tries to limit Israel's response to the Iranian attack last Saturday. Egyptian sources cited by this media said that "the North American administration showed its approval of the previously presented plan" for the military operation in Rafah "in exchange for not carrying out a large-scale attack against Iran." On the night of Wednesday to Thursday, Israeli aircraft bombed Rafah, destroying a building that housed refugees from other parts of Gaza and leaving at least 10 dead under the ruins. The previous night, the bodies of eight members of the same family were recovered from another building in the Al Salam neighborhood.
In this context, Qatar, one of the main mediators between Israel and Hamas (its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, resides precisely in Doha), announced yesterday that it is "in a global reassessment of our role." Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said that “there is exploitation and abuse of Qatar's role” by “politicians who try to conduct electoral campaigns by disparaging the State of Qatar.” Al Thani was outraged by statements by US Democratic Congressman Steny Hoyer in which he asked Qatar to pressure Hamas for a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza or else there would be "repercussions." Al Thani was speaking at a press conference alongside the Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, who for his part accused Beniamin Netanyahu of trying to plunge the Middle East into a war "to remain in power."
