The World Cup in Qatar faces its decisive phase with the qualifying rounds for the title. With the quarterfinal draw at 50%, we will analyze the surprises that have occurred based on the predictions made by the University of Oxford thanks to a mathematical model devised by Joshua Bull.
Big Data and repetition. To carry out this model, the entire group stage and 100,000 times each tie were simulated up to a million times to determine which team would win the championship. According to the predictions, Brazil is the one with the most options to win the cup. A candidacy that remains intact at the expense of what happens in the round of 16 match against South Korea, where it starts as a favourite.
Belgium and Uruguay, the two great absentees. If we talk about the level of reliability that the model has with respect to the teams classified for the round of 16, it slightly exceeds 50%, since it has had 7 errors among the 16 classified teams. Oxford had the presence of Iran, Denmark, Uruguay, Ecuador, Mexico, Belgium and Germany. None of these teams have qualified. In fact, in this section he has only hit one tie out of eight: Portugal-Switzerland.
Two successful quarterfinals. In contrast to the round of 16 forecast, the mathematical model so far has the two quarter-final pairings in place to date correct: Netherlands-Argentina and England-France. However, it is impossible for him to hit the next two, since the prediction was a Spain - Brazil, which will not be possible because Luis Enrique's team is on the other side of the table, and a Belgium - Portugal, with the Belgians already removed.
An impossible ending. Despite the fact that Brazil continues to be one of the favourites, the one who will not reach the final safely is Belgium, one of the great disappointments of the tournament when they fell at the first exchange. A place that could be occupied by France, who has been relentless in their tie against Poland with a great Kylian Mbappé. Or, why not, Spain. But for that he still has a tough journey ahead.
