Until now, SNP and Scottish independence were almost synonymous. The search for sovereignty has been the raison d'être of the party, and the party has been the great channel (with the support of the Greens and other small formations) of the crusade for separation from the rest of Great Britain. But, after the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon a week ago, that link seems to have broken.
The Scottish National Party had battled the scandal of rape and sexual assault allegations against its previous leader, Alex Salmond (who was found not guilty), the ensuing schism and internal war between him and his successor – old allies turned deadly enemies. –, the arrest of chief executive Peter Murrel, Sturgeon's husband, the disappearance of 750,000 euros from the party coffers... But finally the erosion is palpable. It's not like the house is going to fall off the cliff, but it wobbles.
A poll published yesterday predicts what seemed unthinkable: that Labor will win more seats (26) than the SNP (21, with 34% of the vote) in the next British general election, scheduled for the end of next year, and in which all point to the end of an era of Conservative rule in the UK. The Tories would add one MP to their current six, and the Liberals would add five. A true revolution in the political landscape of the country and a romp for the hosts now led by Humza Yousaf.
The SNP has held a virtual monopoly in Scotland since 2010, winning election after election and winning 56 of the 59 seats in Westminster. It currently has 45, but if the poll is on track, they would be less than half, while Labor would go from having only one representative to having close to thirty. It could be the key to an outright majority for Keir Starmer in the UK as a whole.
Before 2010, Labor was the majority party in Scotland, with a collectivist tradition that does not exist in England and where the industrial reforms of the 1980s generated a huge revulsion towards the figure of Margaret Thatcher in particular, and the Conservatives in general. Many of their voters, disappointed with Tony Blair's turn to the center and his support for the Iraq war, went over to the SNP (a formation that could be placed in the center-left, but pro-business and well connected with the bourgeoisie and business). , although the search for independence was not his absolute priority.
In the 2014 referendum on sovereignty, it was said no, but both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon were perceived as better politicians than their English contemporaries (Cameron, May, Johnson...) and generally good managers. That image began to decline in the last couple of years with poor results in the fields of public health, education and crime, and gave his enemies arguments to say that the obsession with independence had caused neglect of day-to-day administration.
The disappearance from the party coffers of money raised for a second independence referendum, the arrest of Murrell and the discovery at his mother's house of a luxury caravan valued at 120,000 euros were a significant blow to the SNP, but the The bleeding of support, votes and seats seemed controlled. Sturgeon's arrest (released without charge, but investigation continues), however, has caused the tourniquet to stop working and blood to gush. The medical prognosis is no longer losing 8 or 10 of its 45 deputies in next year's elections, but more than half and staying with 21. A disaster that forces us to rethink everything.
It would be, if confirmed, the end of an electoral cycle that began thirteen years ago, and the reverse of what happened in 2010, when the SNP defeated Labour. Support for independence remains very strong (47%), but saying yes to sovereignty is no longer saying yes to a party that has lost its way and needs a new strategy and new leaders.
