At first it seemed like a simple embarrassment after the binge of 16 consecutive years in power, an upset stomach, vomiting, the typical stuff. Afterwards it looked more like one of those respiratory viruses that run rampant, a full-blown flu or equivalent, with the need to go to the doctor and take antibiotics. Now, it turns out that the SNP's (Scottish National Party) illness could be more serious. And although the patient's life is not at all in danger, everything points to a long convalescence and the need for physiotherapy and rehabilitation.
Although support for independence remains firm at around 50% of the electorate, the SNP's problem is that the sovereigntist voter is in no hurry to break with the rest of the United Kingdom, and even less so given that the constitutional path to achieving The goal has been blocked since the landslide of a Supreme Court ruling upholding Westminster's authority to simply say no. In the absence of a viable alternative route, he seems to settle for the more modest, but also relevant, objective of getting rid of the detested Tories.
With a monopoly on Scottish political representation for a decade and a half, both at the regional level (Holyrood) and in the House of Commons, the SNP currently has 44 seats in Westminster, six for the Conservatives and only two for Labour. Labor was the country's alpha party, given its collectivist spirit (it is much more social democratic than England), but its followers called for Tony Blair to be divorced for his centrism and the Iraq war. The upcoming elections are presented as a turning point, with his return as a dominant force.
The latest poll suggests a tie between the SNP and Labor with 35% support, compared to 17% for the Conservatives, which would result in the loss of half or more of the 44 nationalist seats. It is not that unionism has increased, or support for independence has decreased, but that a large percentage of sovereignists are emprenyats, angry, bored, disappointed, fed up or furious to different degrees, and willing to lend their vote to Labor leader Keir Starmer to get rid of the Tories, hugely unpopular in Scotland since Thatcher's time.
Humza Yousaf, Nicola Sturgeon's successor as leader of the SNP, frames the upcoming elections as a matter of life and death for independence. “If we don't get a majority of seats,” he says, “the journey will be over for a long time, the only way to achieve prosperity and improve the standard of living of Scots is to be independent and part of the EU.”
But what started as a cold or a cold has turned into a fever of forty. Police are still investigating the disappearance of €750,000 in donations to the SNP that went towards election campaigns instead of independence, resulting in Sturgeon's resignation. At best, it will be an accounting error and a management failure. At worst, a criminal act with criminal responsibilities to be distributed left and right.
To be discharged and leave the hospital, the SNP faces several problems. The first is the loss of its competitive image with the considerable deterioration of public services (health, education...), the increase in drug consumption, the reduction in life expectancy. The second is that, in parallel, Labor has developed a reputation for competence under Starmer, and the mere fact that he is emerging as a probable winner generates additional support. The third is the lack of a strategy for independence, which is its reason for existing, as long as Westminster does not remove the stones in the way of a new referendum (and has no intention of bringing in the bulldozers and excavators). The fourth is that voters' biggest concern now is inflation and the cost of living. And the cherry on top is the specter of the investigation into party financing.
Voters contemplating switching to Labor are on the one hand young people who have grown up in the era of SNP electoral dominance with Alex Salmond and Sturgeon, concerned about poverty and the environmental crisis, and on the other hand, lifelong veteran nationalists who, Given that the road is blocked, they do not mind taking a detour until later returning to the route of independence, and realizing the dream of Scotland occupying a seat in the United Nations between Saudi Arabia and Senegal. They believe that this is the destiny of the country, but for now it is enough for them to dethrone the Tories.
