Chance has wanted the People's Republic of China and Saudi Arabia to embark on "counterterrorist" naval maneuvers while the bloodiest raid ever suffered by Israel is still underway. What is no coincidence is that the exercises, which were announced in September and will last three months, begin this Tuesday. The "10 of 10" or "Double Ten" is also the National Day of the Republic of China, which its outgoing president has insisted in recent editions, with internal controversy, to rename as "Taiwan National Day."
In any case, the Blue Sword maneuvers, which are being carried out for the second time - the first was in 2019, in the Red Sea, near Jeddah - give an idea of the rapprochement between Riyadh and Beijing, the first customer of its oil. Now, as then, the exercises are very aware of the fears of Chinese merchants in those waters, related to piracy and terrorism.
It should be added that China sponsored, at the beginning of the year, the reconciliation between the Saudi kingdom and Iran, last March. A month and a half ago, in South Africa, Saudi Arabia joined - along with Iran itself and the United Arab Emirates - the BRICS group, founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China.
According to several observers, the first victim of the new war in Gaza is the possible agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, with American sponsorship. This pact, in the image of the so-called Abraham Accords, which would imply the recognition of the Zionist state, is today impossible due to the wave of sympathy on the Arab street towards the suffering of the Palestinians under the bombings of the Israeli aircraft in Gaza. Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman - later prime minister - has said that the kingdom "stands with the Palestinians."
The bleeding leaves China in an uncomfortable position, although less so than that of Western countries. Unlike these, Beijing recognizes both Israel and Palestine, which enhances its potential as a mediator. From this arise some formulas of compromise - such as "we observe with deep concern" - which, given the dramatic circumstances, have been denounced as "lukewarm" by Washington (which uses them on many other occasions).
On the other hand, the "independence" president of Taiwan, Tsai Ingwen, who will end her second and last term in a few months, presided this Tuesday over the commemoration of October 10, which alludes to the 1912 uprising that overthrew the imperial dynasty. The parliamentary opposition to Tsai has stayed away from the celebration of the National Day of the Republic of China considering that the president has renamed it, in recent editions, Taiwan Day, with pro-independence connotations.
Tsai, in any case, has been more conciliatory than ever with Beijing in her latest speech, advocating "respect for the status quo", a guarantee according to her of peace in the Strait. She has too. The president, in any case, presented a prototype of a war submarine, flanked by the United States ambassador, coinciding with the Hangzhou Asian Games (in which the island competed as Chinese Taipei).
The shadow of Ukraine - and now, the destruction in Gaza - also weighs on the other side of Asia. According to a Taipei think tank, the president did not want to add fuel to the fire. Meanwhile, her rivals from the Kuomintang celebrated October 10 this Tuesday in her way, gathered outdoors and with a flame from Latin America.
The fact is that the independence-tinged confrontation with Beijing under Tsai's presidency has led, not to greater recognition of the Republic of China, but to the loss of recognition by nine states. The last one, Honduras, this same year. For all of them, as for almost everyone else in the world, China is the People's Republic of China. Fidelity to the government of Taipei as the legitimate representative of China is maintained by a handful of islands, the Vatican, Guatemala, Paraguay and, apparently from the Kuomintang, also a flame.
