For some time now, the general transformation of Asia has been perceived as an Asian boom. In the post-Cold War world, especially, Asia is reviving both economically and strategically. The geopolitical situation of the region is gaining more importance for the main powers. The general growth of the Asian economic market and the fact that Asian states drive the world market for their products may shift the balance of economic power towards Asia. There are hopes that this growth will eventually translate into power.
Asia's advances and its power dynamics are associated with economic and strategic features. Technology can be considered the common thread that unites the economy and the military capabilities of the states in the region. Space technology is advancing rapidly around the world, and Asian states are keen to reap its benefits for national growth. Outer space is becoming an important part of the region's economic and military realms. Some states have almost four or five decades of experience in space investment and innovation; others, however, are newcomers. It could be said that investments in space technologies have a social, scientific and strategic logic for states, and that in recent times the economic dimension has become increasingly visible. Generally speaking, Asia's response to the space age must be understood in the context of the region's power politics.
In global terms and based on financial investments, technological expertise, and the nature and quality of successful programs, the US, Russia, China, and the European Space Agency (ESA) could be considered space powers. category one. Category two space states could be Japan, India and Israel. Among the remainder, the Koreas and Iran could be considered category three. This article attempts to study the so-called space race between the Asian powers. The objective is to evaluate the geoeconomic, geopolitical and geostrategic dimensions that underlie the implementation of space programs by various Asian states and try to understand the notion of space race between them. This work is limited to category two and category three space programs. Therefore, it does not carry out any direct assessment of China's space program.
It should be noted that various non-space states in the region make various investments in the space field. Some have their own relevance in shaping the geopolitics of the region and some of them will be mentioned in passing. Taking into account the different geographical, historical, military and geopolitical realities of the Asian space-active states, the Asian region could be subdivided into three parts:
1. East Asia: Japan, North Korea, and South Korea.
2. Asia Meridional: India.
3. Middle East: Israel and Iran.
JAPAN
From the beginning, one of Japan's main political objectives has been the promotion of scientific research and technological innovation. Space has been an important component of that overall goal. Japan became a state with access to space in 1980. Since then, its space program has evolved significantly. For several decades, it was mostly civilian in nature; and, for a time, Japan had multiple agencies responsible for activities in space. Finally, in 2003 the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) was created.
North Korea's August 1998 test of the Taepodong 1 ballistic missile convinced Tokyo of the need for an anti-missile defense system. The country then began to collaborate with the US in its design and development. The Japanese government officially decided to achieve ballistic missile defense capabilities in December 2003. At the same time, North Korea was seen to continue its missile and nuclear program. Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and has carried out six nuclear tests to date. Aware of the very serious nature of the threat, Japan decided to free itself from the traditional self-imposed restriction on the military use of space. On August 27, 2008, the Basic Space Law was promulgated, which lifted the prohibition on using space for defense purposes. Japan has established a radar and optical spy satellite program called IGS, and the first spy satellite took off in 2003. Japan has launched about 15 such satellites to date.
It has also developed two reliable launch vehicles named H-II A and H-II B. Currently, it can launch about 18,000 kg payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and about 8,000 kg into Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). ). His first attempt to reach lunar orbit was partially successful (the Hiten mission, in 1993). Later in 2007 they succeeded with the Selene mission. In December 2022, an orbiter entered the lunar atmosphere; Unfortunately, the moon landing failed in April 2023. It was a commercial mission undertaken together with the United Arab Emirates. The Japanese mission to Mars is planned for 2024-2025.
The country already has a regional space navigation system in operation called the Japan Near-Zen Satellite System. In 2020, it signed a formal treaty for human space exploration with the US.
NORTH KOREA
North Korea is arguably the most militarized, inaccessible and severely ruled communist state in the world. It has spent more than two decades pushing a nuclear and missile program to threaten South Korea, Japan and the US The Korean Committee for Space Technology was created in the 1980s. That body is responsible for the research, manufacture and launch of satellites and the management of the country's rocket launch facilities.
On September 4, 1998, the authorities announced the successful launch of North Korea's first artificial satellite, Kwangmyongsong 1 (Bright Star 1). Experts consider that this mission was unsuccessful. It is known that North Korea managed to put the satellite into orbit on its fourth attempt, on December 1, 2012, thereby gaining the status of State with space activity. In 2016, it successfully launched the Kwangmyongsong 4 (with a payload of about 200kg) at LEO. The country is preparing to launch a spy satellite in the near future. The North Korean leadership believes that they will need several spy satellites to reinforce their intelligence and that these space systems will allow them to use preventive military force if the situation requires it.
In 2017, North Korea announced a five-year plan to conquer space. The plan provided for the commissioning of a satellite communication system in June 2019. However, it seems that the activities are not progressing as planned. North Korean leaders have also announced the placement of the country's flag on the Moon within a decade. However, the state has not yet developed a powerful rocket capable of escaping from Earth orbit.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea was a late start in the space arena compared to other major space players in the region. It began its space activities in the late eighties. It is paradoxical that this country, so advanced in electronics and other technological fields, has taken so long to develop its own capacity to reach space. In August 1989, the Satellite Technology Research Center (SaTReC) was created. Three months later, the national agency was born: the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI). The first South Korean satellite Kitsat 1 was launched on August 10, 1992, aboard an Ariane launcher; and the manufacture of the satellite was facilitated by Surrey systems. South Korea's first self-produced satellite, KOMPSAT 1, was launched in 1999 aboard a Russian-produced rocket.
The development of an indigenous launch system was not an easy task for the South Korean agencies, which had some failures (2009 and 2010). Success was finally achieved in October 2021, when the first test launch of its domestically-made rocket reached the desired orbit. Previously, in 2013, it had successfully launched thanks to a rocket developed together with Russia.
Looking ahead, South Korea has big plans: surveillance, navigation, and the launch of a lunar probe (with its own rocket) in 2030. The program may also include military satellites. In October 2022, with the help of SpaceX, he launched his first lunar mission, Danuri. The following month, it announced through its new space roadmap a plan to launch a mission to Mars before 2046. Korea aims to develop an engine for a launch vehicle capable of reaching the Moon within the next five years. The goal is to start mining lunar resources in 2032 and land on Mars in 2045, on the centenary of independence from Japanese colonial occupation.
INDIA
India achieved space capabilities in 1980. In 1969 the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) had been created. ISRO is known for its sober engineering and has successfully carried out several missions cheaply. Initially, when India decided to get involved in space technologies in the early 1960s, there was much criticism that a third world and developing country invested unnecessarily in such sophisticated technologies as related with space, if what the state needed was to address problems related to poverty. However, the political leaders of the time considered that, if the country had to develop, it had to invest in technologies and that space was one of them.
The period between 1970 and 1990 could be considered as the consolidation stage of the ISRO, mainly dedicated to learning and experimenting with the design and development of satellites and launch vehicles. ISRO's space program arguably took a giant leap forward with the success (1993-1994) of the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), a medium-lift expendable launch vehicle. Over the years, ISRO has also used that vehicle to carry out various missions, including the mission to the Moon (2008). ISRO also successfully completed a mission to Mars (2013-2014).
At present, India is self-sufficient in developing and launching satellites in LEO for remote sensing, meteorology and Earth observation needs. It has an operational regional space navigation system (NAVIC). In the early 1990s, due to the country's nuclear policies, Russia was prevented from sharing cryogenic engine technology with India, necessary for launching heavy satellites into geostationary orbit. It took ISRO a long time to master that technology; Currently, it is already capable of launching four-ton satellites into geostationary orbit and is working to make the Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) capable of lifting 8 tons.
India is taking great interest in developing its space economy and is taking steps to involve the private sector. The Indian armed forces are also helped by space technologies. The country has launched two satellites for the exclusive use of the Navy and the Air Force. In 2019, it also carried out an anti-satellite test (ASAT).
ISRAEL
The peace treaty between Israel and Egypt was signed in Washington DC on March 26, 1979. Indirectly, it could be said that this treaty became one of the reasons for the development of Israel's space program. And this because the country wanted to have technological capabilities to verify Egyptian compliance with the regulations of the treaty. Still, Israeli investments in space have a long history. The Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities created a National Committee for Space Research in the 1960s. In 1988, nearly three decades later, Israel became a space-capable country with Ofeq 1, a reconnaissance satellite launched via its own rocket called the Shavit. A few years earlier, in 1983, the Israeli Space Agency (ISA) had been created. To date, Israel has launched about twelve satellites (LEO) of the Ofeq series of reconnaissance satellites.
The Israeli space sector is very dynamic and is engaged in the fields of communication services and remote sensing. The State develops high-quality sensors that are used in various satellite systems. Its lunar program has significant participation from the private sector. On April 11, 2019, the Israeli lander crashed into the surface of the Moon. However, thanks to the success of its orbital insertion, Israel is already the seventh country to have put a spacecraft in orbit of the Moon.
IRAN
Iran has been developing space technology for many years. His interests in technical and arms control issues related to space science and technology date back to the late 1950s. The first Iranian satellite, Sinah 1, was launched by Russia on October 28, 2005. The Iranian Space Agency and the Supreme Space Council were created in late 2003. Iran became a space-capable country in 2008. It is known that the Iranian space program has served primarily as a cover for the development of long-range missile technology (as in the case of North Korea). However, that does not mean that Iran does not have a genuine interest in developing its own space program. Currently, it has three operational satellites. He has also sent animals into space. It harbors great ambitions, such as the human spaceflight program, the creation of a space station and a mission to the Moon. However, due to economic and technological reasons, it is likely that it will take a long time for all those plans to materialize.
The space race is not a new hypothesis. It began with the launch of the first satellites by the ¬USSR in 1957. The US responded by launching its satellite in 1958. It was a technological pulse between the two powers. It could be said that the real race began when Yuri Gagarin went up into space (1961). Within a few years, the US achieved great success with the manned visit to the Moon (1969), and the rest is history.
In the Asian context, before discussing the space race, it would be important to appreciate the strategic investments made by some states in the region. In this regard, China's point of view (not discussed here) is extremely important. China possesses nuclear weapons, has a large-caliber missile force, and has invested heavily in missile defense systems. It is an ASAT (anti-satellite weapons) powerhouse and has launched a major counterspace program. The same is true of India, although the country does not have a counterspace program. China has achieved good results in the development of hypersonic weapons, while India is at an early level of development of such missiles. North Korea is a nuclear power and has a major missile program. Japan and South Korea have an anti-missile defensive shield. Iran has invested in the development of various missile systems. It is common knowledge that Israel is a de facto nuclear state. Its advances in the field of missiles and missile defense are commendable. Another state in the region, which is not a space-capable state but has reasonable nuclear and missile weapons structures, is Pakistan.
Regional rivalries in Asia include major flashpoints such as between Iran and Israel, India and Pakistan, North Korea and South Korea, as well as North Korea and Japan. There are also some differences between Japan and South Korea. Specifically, with regard to space, there are two important operational intergovernmental organizations in the region. The Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) is headquartered in Beijing, and its Asian members include Bangladesh, Pakistan and Thailand. For its part, the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agencies Forum (APRSAF), created in 1993, is driven mainly by Japan, but India and South Korea are, along with a few other Asian states, members of the forum.
The three major Asian players, who hold the key to a cooperative security environment, are Japan, India, and South Korea. Asia's shifting power dynamics are reflected in the rise of India, Israel's increasingly assertive stance on foreign policy and Japan's reluctance to stay in step with the US on all issues. India and Japan have ambitious space programs, but they are most likely cooperating with each other rather than launching into some kind of competition. Japan and India are becoming more transparent about their military space investments; thus, in the absence of strategic competition, security-related differences are not expected to arise. On the commercial level, there is the possibility that both countries aspire to a similar market.
In general, the space arena and the prospects for a space race in the Asian region must be considered in the context of the fault lines and strategic economic interests of the region. Right now, the world needs to pay more attention to the North Korean and Iranian space programs. Both have the potential to show wayward behavior at any time.
Ajey Lele is an adviser at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), New Delhi, India.
