After making the 23-J fail the forecast that the tsunami of the right would engulf him and open a new political cycle in Spain, Pedro Sánchez is willing to try, again, the most difficult yet. His specialty.
The PSOE leader's claim is to achieve a new investiture as Prime Minister, and forge a parliamentary majority of the legislature, for which the position adopted by Junts per Catalunya will be decisive. Rupturism and unilateralism, or pragmatism and permeability. “Together you have two souls”, they highlight.
But its leader, former president Carles Puigdemont, has remained on the run from Spanish justice since the fleeting unilateral declaration of Catalan independence in 2017. And once the General Court of the EU withdrew the immunity of the European Parliament, the Prosecutor's Office claims that the Supreme Court reactivates the Euro arrest warrant against him. Sánchez's bid to achieve re-election is again one of maximum risk and very high political voltage.
Before 23-J, Sánchez rejected the Junts maximum program: amnesty for all those accused of the process and a referendum on self-determination in Catalonia. And, after the appointment with the polls, the President of the Government, already in office, continues to rule out these demands, despite the fact that Puigdemont's training may be essential for him to opt for a new investiture.
This was highlighted yesterday by the government spokeswoman, the socialist Isabel Rodríguez, after the last Council of Ministers was held before the holidays. "If something has been demonstrated in these years of the government of President Pedro Sánchez, it is that in Catalonia, as in Spain as a whole, only the constitutional framework fits," she warned. "We are a constitutionalist party, and that means that any issue we address has to be strictly within the constitutional framework," agreed the PSOE Deputy Secretary General, Minister María Jesús Montero.
The Socialists, in addition, are committed to looking to the future and turning the page on the process of 2017. "According to the expression of the Catalan citizens, it seems clear that they liked that," stressed the minister spokesperson. She thus alluded to the electoral triumph of Salvador Illa's PSC this Sunday at the polls, by obtaining more votes and seats in Congress than all the pro-independence formations combined. In the PSOE they summon Junts to reflect on the result of the elections in Catalonia.
Game by game, in any case, is Sánchez's strategic motto. And, aware that Alberto Núñez Feijóo does not have sufficient support for his investiture, he is in no hurry.
Step by Step. In Moncloa and Ferraz they urge to wait, for the moment, for next Friday the vote from abroad to draw the final parliamentary map, since some seat could still dance. Afterwards, they foresee a long hiatus until the new Cortes are constituted on August 17. And they agree that nothing will change, with a view to an eventual inauguration of Sánchez, until then.
The Socialists hope to retain the presidency of Congress, but they will also have to negotiate the composition of the Table. And they warn that Junts, despite the fact that it obtained 7 deputies on 23-J, will want to form its own group in the Lower House. "The Board will have the last word," they emphasize. These first negotiations will set the tone, and the willingness of the parties to reach agreements.
From then on, the dialogue is expected under the radar. "To bring a negotiation to a successful conclusion, we need to have discretion," argued María Jesús Montero. And he knows exactly what he is talking about, after managing to approve three consecutive general state budgets.
The game will be very complex, and it is presumed that it will be long in time. The deadlines could be delayed until after September 11, the Diada de Catalunya.
In the PSOE they assume that the new parliamentary arithmetic is devilish. But in the Government there are also those who see an opportunity. If this legislature served as a "landing strip" for ERC after the process, the next legislature could be an opportunity for Junts to land as well. "Hopefully," confides a minister.
