The PSC would consolidate its advantage over Esquerra and would prevail as the first force in the Parliamentary elections, but also in general elections. This is one of the main conclusions of the second wave of the barometer of the Center d'Estudis d'Opinió, which reflects a new decline in support for independence, with 52% of those consulted against it.
In the chapter on the intention to vote, the sensitive recovery of the PP also stands out, which would abandon the caboose to place itself in fourth position, ahead of the CUP, the commons and its direct competitors from Vox and Cs. The ultras would lose almost two points in the best of cases.
The CEO's forecast, based on field work carried out between June 7 and July 7 on 2,000 interviews, draws a rise in the PSC of almost six points (up to 29% in the highest range) and a harvest of seats that would range between 36 and 42 (up to nine more than now).
Esquerra, on the other hand, would maintain or only slightly improve his electoral support. The Republicans move between 19% and 23% of the vote, less than two points above their February 2021 result. That share of the vote would give them between 31 and 37 seats (they now have 33).
Next, Junts would maintain the descending line that it has been registering since the last elections and would obtain between 14% and 17% of the vote, up to six points less than in the last elections. The translation in seats would suppose a fork of between 22 and 27; that is, up to ten less than the current 32.
Fourth place would now be occupied by the PP which, in line with its evolution in Spain as a whole, could improve its 2021 result by up to six points (when it was below 4%). That advance could provide the popular ones with up to 11 more seats than now and would allow them to gather a total of 14.
For its part, the CUP would also move upwards, although to a lesser extent, with an estimated vote between 6% and 8%, compared to the 6.7% registered more than a year ago. Its range of seats would be between eight and 12, up to three more than now. Instead, the commons would evolve lower. His estimated vote ranges between 4% and 6%, compared to 6.9% in 2021. In seats, ECP would give up between one and four compared to the current eight.
Finally, Vox would lose steam and obtain between 4% and 6% of the vote, which would mean up to 3.7 points less than now and a loss of between three and seven seats on the current 11. In turn, Ciudadanos would maintain around 5% of the votes and could repeat its current crop of seats (6) or reduce it by half in the worst case.
This scenario presents another relevant derivative: the possibility, although remote, that the pro-independence movement would not achieve an absolute majority in the Chamber (68 seats). However, the range of the pro-independence forces is too wide (between 61 and 76 deputies) to make a conclusive prediction.
On the other hand, the survey inquires about the result in a general election in Catalonia. And there the PSC would also take the lead, unlike what happened in the 2019 elections. With between 13 and 15 seats (they now have 12), the Socialists would surpass Esquerra (which would move between two less and one more of the 13 current).
Next would be Junts (which could lose two of the eight seats in 2019); the common ones (with a harvest of between four and six deputies compared to seven three years ago) and the PP, which would go from two seats to between three and six. The CUP and Vox would remain and CS could lose its representation in Congress.
Finally, the poll asks about support for independence, a dilemma in which those opposed to secession would prevail by an advantage of 11 points (52% against 41%). This is the biggest advantage of the last seven years. In the previous poll, the margin was not just four points.
