The demoscopic memory is so fragile that it often gives the impression of being non-existent. This is what is happening now in Portugal, shaken by a series of polls that simultaneously point to a strong fall of Prime Minister António Costa's Socialist Party (PS) and a confused right-wing majority if there were elections today. The paradox resides in the fact that the previous legislative sessions were held less than thirteen months ago, with a resounding failure in the polls. His discredit forces us to take them with caution, although they have in their favor that the scenario they draw is consistent with the recent political situation, in which Costa has shown that he had much less trouble governing in a minority than with his current majority. absolute.
The politician, who when he was considered amortized in 2015 achieved the miracle of coming to power at the head of an unusual center-left coalition, achieved parliamentary hegemony on January 30, 2022 against the odds. The polls did not give him any option, since in the two previous weeks he was between five and seven points below the 41.4% of the votes that he obtained in the end. He even signed up for a possible majority of the right, in which the ultra party, Chega! (Enough!).
The fear that its exalted leader, a former Benfica soccer commentator, the xenophobic and racist André Ventura, would seize the key to governance, undoubtedly drove Costa. But the difference between the polls and reality was so wide that I could not explain it only with that factor, but perhaps also due to technical deficiencies.
The debate on the credibility of the polls, preceded by the resounding error in the Lisbon municipal polls, lasted a few days. Now some call to caution appears, but the polls are once again paid attention to. The liturgy of current politics makes them essential.
Last Thursday the Público newspaper and the state chain RTP released a survey by the Catholic University that places the PS with nine points less than in the elections of January 30, 2022, which leads it to be almost tied with the main force of the opposition, the conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD), which with its new leader barely rises three points, despite the socialist wear and tear. This is capitalized much more in proportion to its size by Chega!, with four points of rise, and Iniciativa Liberal, with three. There is also a recovery of the Left Bloc, an ally of the BNG and Podemos, as well as a communist stagnation. In the surveys of other institutes, Pitagórica and Aximage, these tendencies are exacerbated, with a greater socialist descent and a more powerful advance of Chega!. That of Intercampus, with a different methodology, coincides with the general diagnosis.
Despite the more nuanced prognosis of the Público and RTP poll, the forces of the right would add 51% of the votes, which, however, does not prevent an alternative from continuing without crystallizing. The PSD of the new leader, Luís Montenegro, makes little progress, while maintaining its ambiguity with Chega!, from which Inicitiva Liberal distances itself. Thus, there is no glimpse, as it did in the Azorean Parliament, of a right-wing geringonça, which is how the left-wing pact of 2015 is known.
The reasons for the unexpected wear and tear of the absolute Costa, after his success of six years in the minority, are perfectly located. They reside in the succession of crises in the Government that, due to management problems or scandals, swept away two of the apparently most solid ministers since August, Health, Marta Temido, and, above all, Infrastructure, Pedro Nuno Santos, a reference to the left wing and once a virtual dolphin of Costa. In the middle, there was a trickle of departures of State secretaries, a relevant position in the hyper-centralized Portugal.
So far, the best Costa has appeared in adversity. And in recent weeks he has worked hard to regain the initiative, for example, with a housing plan. What has been published at the moment indicates that neither the President of the Republic, the conservative Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who is the one who convenes, nor public opinion want early elections. And the experience of these years, of revivals when he seemed to be on the ropes, is a warning that Costa's fate is never cast, even if the ground is shifting under his feet in his residence in the São Bento palace.
