Global society is on the brink of a technological revolution that is seeing a huge leap in productivity, boosting global growth and increasing incomes around the world. This apparent paradise has a dark side. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) will mean a 40% cut in jobs and an increase in inequality.
This is predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in an extensive analysis titled Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work, released this Monday. Its preparation is focused on the Davos forum that started today, where the impact of AI, a term for computer programs that perform tasks normally associated with human intelligence levels, is one of the central issues of the meetings at the city of Switzerland.
The rapid development of this technological platform has captivated everywhere, causing excitement and alarm, as well as raising important questions about its potential influence on the global economy.
“Its impact is still difficult to calculate. It will spread throughout the economies in a complex way,” the document states. “We can say with some confidence that we will need to establish a set of policies to safely harness the enormous potential of AI for the benefit of humanity,” he emphasizes.
One of the greatest impacts, the IMF predicts, will occur in the labor market. After indicating that many predictions have already been made about this effect, in which AI will take over jobs today in the hands of humans, the Fund concludes with the spectacular figure that 40% of current jobs are exposed to artificial intelligence.
In this sense, the director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, warns in the blog that accompanies this document of the “crucial” urgency for countries to build a social protection network to mitigate this impact on the most vulnerable workers.
Georgieva emphasizes that AI has the capacity to affect all countries, no matter how rich they are. According to her prediction, this tool will impact highly skilled jobs, which means that advanced economies face greater risks from this technology immediately. She even adds that, in extreme cases, some jobs will disappear in major economies. The impact would reach 60%, but not everything would be destructive.
“Almost half of occupations can benefit from the integration of AI, increasing productivity,” says Georgieva. “For the other half, AI applications can perform tasks that humans typically do, which will reduce labor demand and lead to lower wages and reduced hiring, with jobs disappearing,” she says.
In many scenarios, he persists, AI will almost certainly worsen inequality in the global economy, and this carries the danger of fueling social tensions if there is no political intervention.
“It is crucial for countries to establish comprehensive safety nets and offer training programs for workers in weaker positions,” advises Georgieva. “If this is done, we can make the artificial intelligence transition more inclusive, protecting livelihoods, and curb the disparity,” she reiterates.
According to the IMF report, the jobs exposed that have the greatest security are those that have a high complementarity with AI. This means that technology will play an assistant role in that work rather than displacing it completely. This category includes highly responsible occupations in which you interact with people, such as surgeons, lawyers or judges.
On the other hand, occupations with a lower level of complementarity face the threat of humans being replaced. This includes telemarketing or those who work in call centers to offer goods or services, among many other manual occupations. In developing economies, the disruptions predicted in the short term would be smaller, although in the long run they would expand due to the lack of infrastructure and the lack of personnel who would benefit from AI.
