Northern Ireland is like a quagmire of shifting waters strewn with bombs that have not been deactivated, where it is always too early to claim victory. It has only been eight weeks since the autonomous institutions were reestablished after a lapse of two years, but the sudden fall of the main unionist leader already threatens his always precarious stability.
Jeffrey Donaldson, 61, the top leader of the DUP, has had no choice but to resign after being arrested – and immediately released on bail – as a suspect in an alleged long-ago rape, following charges by a person unidentified, and the subsequent police investigation.
After a long boycott of the Stormont Assembly and the Ulster Executive in protest at Brexit agreements that he believes have alienated Ulster from Britain and diluted unionism, Donaldson backed down at the end of January, when London was about to resume the reins of the provincial Government, and agreed to the participation of his party in the institutions as number two behind Sinn Féin (former political arm of the IRA).
His fall raises the problem that not all members of the DUP are supporters of a co-government subordinated to their hated historical enemy, who won the last elections in the province. And not everyone considers the concessions from London and Brussels regarding British internal trade sufficient to keep the veto on the functioning of the autonomous institutions lifted. An influential sector is betting on suspending them again to try to achieve better Brexit agreements for Ulster.
For the moment, the main Protestant and unionist party, still reeling from the scandal, has opted for stability. Donaldson has been replaced by his number two, Gavin Robinson, an advocate of essentially the same policies. But sooner rather than later an internal election will be necessary to choose a new leader, and the appointment of a hawk could pose major complications for the precarious political balance in Belfast.
The unionist community is very divided (many did not agree with Brexit, but all Protestant parties supported it, falling into the trap that Boris Johnson set for them with promises that he did not even try to keep), and the accusations against Donaldson can easily open the gap even more. The DUP, a majority group created by the Reverend Ian Paisley, is losing votes to both the more radical TUV and the (non-denominational) Alliance Party.
The defeat of Sinn Féin, driven by demographic factors (Catholics have more children), could be consolidated in the next British general elections, not yet called but which will probably take place in the autumn. The Republicans are also the favorites to obtain the majority of votes in next year's elections in the Republic of Ireland, where they face opposition from the entire establishment of the country.
Unionism has a very serious identity problem, no longer holding the reins of a province that was created to suit the Protestants. Now, with this bomb, it can get worse.
