One path has been closed, but another is opening," said Gerry Adams, then leader of Sinn Féin (the political arm of the IRA), when the Good Friday agreements were signed. The path that the Republicans ended in 1998 was that of machine guns and bombs, because they were already so infiltrated by British intelligence agents that they were going nowhere. And the one that they began to visit was the one with the ballots and the ballot boxes.
It is a path that can take you to the top. They have already won the last regional elections in Ulster, and were the most voted party in the Republic of Ireland. If he is not in power, it is because his two center-right rivals, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (successors to the two great fathers of the country, Eamon de Valera and Michael Collins), forged a peculiar coalition in which their respective leaders they take turns as taoiseach (prime minister).
Sinn Féin has a long tradition in the Republic due to its links to the IRA, but in recent years it has become the dominant political force, with the support of 31%, according to the latest poll, especially among young people fed up with clientelism, an excessive cost of living (housing is scarce and Dublin has become as expensive as New York or Los Angeles), the deterioration of health, education and public services. He does not mention the crusade for reunification, which is taken for granted, but it is a subject that he prefers not to touch on so as not to hurt feelings.
More than a century after partition in 1921, two-thirds of the Republic's inhabitants are in favor of reincorporating the six Ulster counties that Michael Collins ceded to the United Kingdom as a Protestant stronghold. But it is not an obsession, and interest is diluted enough as soon as there is speculation about the cost that it would mean, the equivalent or more than what the former West Germany paid in its day to absorb the East. “It's a nice idea, but we're not going to break the bank either,” says Michael Sexton, manager of a car dealership in an affluent suburb of the capital.
Although Sinn Féin is the party with the most votes both in the north and in the south of the island, reunification is still going to take a while. According to the Good Friday agreements, to call a referendum it is necessary that "a clear majority wishes it", and that moment does not seem imminent. In Ulster, only 27% of the population say they love it, while 50% prefer to remain part of the United Kingdom. Among unionists, by an overwhelming percentage, as might be expected. Somewhat more surprising is that Catholics are more divided, with one in five preferring the status quo.
That this is the case has a lot to do with the commitment to Brexit, which allows Northern Irish people to enjoy the best of both worlds, with one foot in Great Britain and the other in the EU. Despite the red tape involved in being part of the single market, the benefits far outweigh the drawbacks, especially for entrepreneurs. Unionists see it as a threat to their identity and a push towards integration into the Republic for economic reasons. But it is a stew that is cooked over low heat. And the nationalists, as they consolidate their power on both sides of the border, are in no rush.
This is the panorama that US President Joe Biden will encounter on his visit, first to Belfast, for the 25th anniversary of the peace accords, and then to the Republic, where he will address Parliament and search for those roots of which he is so proud of. The British are dying of jealousy, because he instead has rejected the invitation to the coronation at the beginning of May of King Carlos III, alleging that at eighty years old he is not ready to make two transatlantic voyages in such a short time. “Washington has a special relationship, but not with London, as we like to boast, but with Dublin,” wrote a Telegraph commentator.
Biden has made it clear to the last leaders of the United Kingdom that he did not like their anti-Europeanism and the threats to breach the Brexit pacts. And he didn't decide to travel to Belfast until Johnson and Liz Truss disappeared from the scene and the more diplomatic Rishi Sunak changed tune. But from there to extolling royalty goes a long way, and Eisenhower started the tradition of keeping American presidents away from coronations. The English are like Othelo. Lope de Vega already said: "There is no greater glory than love, nor greater punishment than jealousy."
