Three weeks before the general elections, the latest 40dB poll for El País and Cadena SER paints a not so favorable picture for the Popular Party compared to the one shown in the previous barometer. The study carried out between June 26 and 30, indicates that the PP continues to lead the intention to vote with 31%, however it also indicates that the popular ones have lost almost two percentage points since the last electoral poll.
In the case of the PSOE, the poll shows that the vote estimate has increased by 1.3 percentage points, remaining at 29%. The study presents the possibility that the Socialists improve the results they achieved in 2019, on July 23. The latest 40dB barometer indicates that Vox remains in third place with 15% of the intention to vote and Sumar in fourth with 13%.
The results obtained in this study indicate that the right would go from the 174 seats expected in the previous barometer to 168. Even with an alliance with UPN and CC, with whom the popular groups have just agreed to govern together in the Canary Islands, the barometer indicates that the possible coalition of Vox and the PP would remain six deputies below the absolute majority. On the other hand, the poll indicates that PSOE and Sumar, together, would go from 141 to 146 deputies and with the vote of many small parties it would be possible for the left to reach an absolute majority (175 seats) in the general elections.
Other barometers differ in the results and offer another scenario for both blocks. The latest Sigma Dos study for El Mundo indicates that the PP has increased four tenths in voting intentions in recent weeks, going from 34% to 34.4% and that the PSOE has fallen two tenths to 28.2%. The study not only indicates that the popular ones can get between 140 and 143 deputies in these elections, but also that, according to the electoral survey, 13.1% of PSOE voters in 2019 will opt for Feijóo on July 23. The Sigma Dos barometer indicates that the bloc on the right would reach between 175 and 181 deputies in the general elections.
The latest GAD3 poll for ABC presents similar results to the El Mundo barometer. Showing that the agreement between Vox and the PP in the Balearic Islands and the first reactions to María Guardiola's pact in Extremadura have not taken their toll on the Popular Party's advantage. According to GAD3, the popular voters have an estimate of 36.6% and will reach between 150 and 154 seats in these elections. In the case of Vox, the study indicates that it has lost one percentage point of voting intention (11.5%), which has left Santiago Abascal's coalition with less than 30 deputies. The barometer results suggest that even with the decline in Vox's support, the bloc on the right will obtain an absolute majority, only now that majority is borderline.
Between the possible allies of the two large blocks there are also differences in the numbers presented by the barometers. The GAD3 poll indicates that Bildu, for example, is the only one of the possible allies that has grown, going from 1.2% of the vote estimate to 1.3%, with one more seat in Congress, from five to six.
However, the Basque Sociometer for El Correo presents a triple tie at five seats between Bildu, PNV and PSE. Which in turn represents an improvement in the results of the two left forces, PSOE and Sumar, since they would add one more seat each.
