The CIS predicts a narrow victory for the PNV over EH Bildu

The CIS survey on the Basque elections confirms the trend reflected in almost all the polls, which speaks of absolute equality between the PNV and EH Bildu, although in this case it gives a slight advantage to the jeltzales (30-31 seats) against the nationalist coalition (28-29).

Oliver Thansan
Oliver Thansan
31 March 2024 Sunday 16:20
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The CIS predicts a narrow victory for the PNV over EH Bildu

The CIS survey on the Basque elections confirms the trend reflected in almost all the polls, which speaks of absolute equality between the PNV and EH Bildu, although in this case it gives a slight advantage to the jeltzales (30-31 seats) against the nationalist coalition (28-29). The key to governability would be the PSE, which would remain at 10 seats or increase one (11), while the PP would remain on its electoral ground, with between 5 and 6 representatives.

On the other hand, the fight between Podemos (0-1) and Sumar (0-2) for the same electorate would be extremely even, with the two formations fighting to enter the Basque Parliament by the minimum. In any case, the space of the confederal left would go from the current 6 seats of the purple formation to bordering on the possibility of being left out.

The CIS survey is, at the moment, the one that grants a higher range of seats to the PNV (30-31), which would maintain its current representation (31) or, at most, lose one representative (30). Curiously, it is also one of the surveys that gives a higher range to EH Bildu (28-29), along with the Basque Government's Sociometer, which last week gave the nationalist coalition 29 (the same as it gave to the PNV).

Regarding the representation of the PSE, this survey coincides with the majority by placing the socialists at their current representation (10) or slightly above (11). With respect to the Popular Party, however, this range of 5-6 representatives is in the low range of the survey average, which gives them 6-7 parliamentarians (the Popular Party achieved 6 parliamentarians four years ago, in coalition with Ciudadanos). .

In the elections on April 21, there are two keys at stake: who will win the elections, within this struggle between the two great nationalist forces, and who will have the option to govern. The first big unknown will be resolved around that fight between the PNV and EH Bildu. According to the CIS, the jeltzals would take the lead.

As for the second unknown, we must look at the results that PNV and EH Bildu can achieve, but above all we must look at the PSE. If the sum of Jeltzales and Socialists reaches 38 seats that give an absolute majority, it is more than likely that these two formations will reissue a government similar to the current one, with Imanol Pradales as Lehendakari and advisors from both formations.

If they do not achieve a majority, it is possible that the PNV and PSE will also choose to form a minority government, although it would be greatly burdened by the need to constantly rely on external support and it is likely that they would have to look to the PP.

The Jeltzales aspire to win their fight with EH Bildu, taking that symbolic victory, and to be able to govern, two triumphs that, according to the CIS, would be within reach.

The nationalist coalition, meanwhile, aspires to clearly grow in seats (something that is practically guaranteed, taking into account that today it has 21 seats) and to win its fight with the PNV, achieving a symbolic victory that for this formation would be historic. However, they have a very difficult time governing.

There are only two hypotheses that could allow EH Bildu to govern. The first would be to achieve an incontestable victory that would invite the PNV to accept defeat and step aside, something that no survey has predicted. The other option would be to convince the PSE to support the investiture of Pello Otxandiano, something that seems unlikely, given that the socialists have announced that they will not make the EH Bildu candidate lehendakari.