When the cat sleeps, the mice dance. In geopolitics, when the superpower gets lost, dictators multiply. International conflicts are piling up for Joe Biden's US in the middle of an election year, and incapable of responding to so many fronts at the same time, they multiply sterile gestures. The consequence is a proliferation of populism and dictatorships that, from Africa to Central and South America and Asia, are undermining democracy and freedoms. The expansion of the extreme right, the military coups in Africa and political coups in Latin America or the audacity of fascism in Europe is no coincidence. Without a doubt, Donald Trump's primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire are a preview of what awaits us if the corrupt magnate returns to the White House, a not at all remote possibility given the lack of energy of his aging adversary to manage the helm of the planet.
In the Middle East, the war between Israel and Hamas has opened a Pandora's box of old and new conflicts spanning Armenia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, Iraq, Syria and the Kurdistan region. An interconnected powder magazine that has put the world economy in check by blocking the passage of merchant ships through the Red Sea.
While North Korea breaks with its policy of unity with the South and shows terrifying nuclear teeth, Russia advances with impunity in Ukraine. In the Sahel, chusquero sergeants compete in Mali, Burkina Faso or Niger in a 21st century cold war, expelling Western troops and embracing mercenaries paid by Moscow. Latin America swings between the rancid communism of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua and the populism of Milei in Argentina or Bukele in El Salvador.
This bleak panorama coincides with the arm's length struggle between the powers that are vying for first place on the podium, the US and China. The economic ailments of China's dual system have opened a dispute that seemed to be tilted in its favor. But the battle will be long and the deterioration of democratic values and the loss of faith of Western citizens in their leaders portends the worst. And Europe? As always, it is neither there nor expected.
