The political future of the Basque Country in the short and even medium term will begin to be decided before the end of the day, once the three unknowns that today's Basque Parliament elections must clear up are clarified: who will win the elections, who will govern and under what conditions. If Imanol Pradales (PNV) prevails over Pello Otxandiano (EH Bildu) in their very tight fight and also reaches the absolute majority with the help of the PSE, nothing will fundamentally have changed, no matter how much the distance with the Abertzale coalition may be. be reduced to a minimum. A victory by the independentists, with Jeltzales and socialists outside the majority, on the other hand, would open a new horizon with implications beyond Euskadi.
The Basque labyrinth, a term coined by the anthropologist and linguist Julio Caro Baroja, maintains some specificities, but its particularities have lost weight, and it has become globalized. Concerns such as the situation of the health system and, in general, public services, precariousness, security or the price of housing, all of them very present in the European context and capable of moving governments, have marked the campaign, especially all in its first ten days.
These issues are, furthermore, those that appear at the forefront of citizen concerns and will probably be the ones that decide the dispute that is being settled today. The two parties with the possibility of winning tonight – it will be another thing to govern – have agreed in interpreting that Basque society is not in a total challenge, although they detect concern and a drive that demands changes.
The PNV has admitted errors and proposes a renewal, which would be embodied by that generational change that Pradales represents, although at the same time reclaiming the story of its management during the last 40 years and appealing to the risks of a change at the hands of EH Bildu . “It is at stake to advance or regress in quality of life,” he points out. The nationalist coalition, meanwhile, proposes “a change of cycle”, talks about “regeneration”, appeals to “hope in the face of uncertainty” and demands a “new policy based on cooperation”. The battle is there, in which of these two stories ends up seducing Basque society to face the future.
During the campaign there has also been talk of self-government, although always with an instrumental nuance: “More self-government to live better,” the PNV has claimed; “a new status as a lever of transformation to make 21st century policies,” proclaims EH Bildu. The two nationalist formations can exceed 75% of representation, an unprecedented ceiling, although the desire for independence is close to its historical minimum and, of course, will not tilt the elections.
It is also not clear that the issue that has marked the campaign in the decisive week, the issue of memory and the critical review of terrorism, the elephant in the room of Basque politics, will determine the elections. As is known, Otxandiano repeatedly avoided calling ETA a “terrorist group” last Monday in an interview on Cadena Ser. The PSE, first, and the PNV, later, jumped on him and insisted that those statements portrayed him. “Euskadi needs a Lehendakari who condemns ETA,” Pradales categorically criticized.
The pro-independence candidate reacted by asking “forgiveness” to the victims and sought to focus on the evolution of his training in this regard. The big question is whether all this controversy has moved the trends that were emerging until Monday, the last day on which surveys were published. Then, practically all the polls placed the Abertzale coalition ahead, although the pulse was very even.
The first unknown tonight will be cleared up from that fight, and we will have to look at both the victory in seats and the result in votes, since a tie cannot be ruled out. In the current Basque Parliament the distance between both formations is 10 seats: 31 out of a total of 75 for the PNV, compared to 21 for EH Bildu.
Basque nationalists are aware that this gap is history, and the objective is to win, even if it is by the minimum. If they achieve this, it is certain that they will govern, although we will have to look at the result of the PSE, the arbiter of Basque politics, to elucidate how: whether they will have the 38 seats that give access to the absolute majority or they will have to govern as a minority.
The situation will be different if the first unknown is cleared up on the pro-independence side and EH Bildu wins the seats. It would mean an unprecedented symbolic victory for the nationalist party, which would reinforce its current strategy and leave the PNV affected. In any case, we would immediately have to pay attention, again, to the result of the PSE; There, if the socialists do not gain a majority with the PNV, a complex panorama would open up.
The Basque nationalists and socialists would probably try to reproduce a scheme similar to that of the Gipuzkoa Provincial Council, where they govern as a minority, and the Basque PP would immediately recover its lost relevance. This is a very worrying scenario in the medium term for the PNV, which could have implications in Madrid, since the popular parties have already stressed that they will be demanding.
It is also possible that EH Bildu wins in seats, but that nationalists and socialists gain a majority. Only the first unknown would be cleared up on the Abertzale side, something that would undoubtedly be relevant, but the PNV could govern comfortably and would have four years to recover from the independence defeat.
The only possibility that EH Bildu has to reach Ajuria Enea is through a resounding victory over the PNV, an option that no survey has drawn. The Jeltzales would have to take a step back and begin a complicated journey through the desert. It is not a probable scenario, although it is within the possible. The intensity of the drive for change detected by some polls will decide this unprecedented struggle between a PNV that proposes renewal and the change of cycle proposed by the nationalist coalition.
