This Tuesday night, Barça will seek a place in the Champions League semi-finals in a packed Montjuïc. The Blaugrana imposed their idea of play in Paris and will seek to repeat it in the return leg. For its part, Luis Enrique's PSG arrives with new features and with no other option than to win to advance. The show is guaranteed and so is the board. Here my keys for this great game:
The losses of Christensen and Sergi Roberto force Xavi to reformulate a midfield with two options that had worked wonderfully for him until now. And this decision is what will determine the composition of the team and, to a large extent, the tie. The first option is the one we already saw for a few minutes in Paris with De Jong and Pedri in the lower part of the square, keeping Gündogan and Raphinha in the upper area. If you do not want to opt for this starting formula and save the Pedri factor for the second half, the options would appear to lower Gündogan's height by bringing in Fermín or, the most unlikely, to bet on the figure of Oriol Romeu as defensive midfielder. Be that as it may, Barça's best performance has occurred with Gündogan near the area and that may influence Xavi's decision.
After some difficult first minutes, Barça were magnificent, overcoming PSG's pressure in the first leg. And he did it above all from the controlled long game: Ter Stegen-Lewandowski. As indicated by data from @gusfop, the average distance of the initial passes from the goal was 22.8 meters, a longer than usual length. And it worked very well because both Ter Stegen and Lewandoski were sensational in it. The goalkeeper, with good passing precision, and the forward, holding and unloading these balls to give them continuity. But the maneuver in the Parc des Princes was so efficient that Luis Enrique will surely have worked on things so that it does not work in Montjuïc. Therefore, it will be important for Barça to have new alternatives prepared if they want to overcome this pressure. Either short or long, but varying the approach.
It was already a decisive issue in the first leg and, even more so, it should be so in the return leg. PSG is going to leave space behind the defense and Barça has to take advantage of it. But, starting from this base, which is clear, it will be essential that the Blaugrana do not enter into the condition that they have sometimes committed in this type of scenario (Las Palmas, Madrid...): the haste to invade these spaces. And the main risk that the team may have tonight when it has the ball is that of playing faster than desirable. It will be decisive that the Barça players (especially the midfielders) know how to choose the right timing and directions of play at all times. Enter from behind, yes, but when it's time.
Barring a surprise, it will be an open tie until the end. For this reason, secondary actors are very important. That is, those who finish the game. It was already seen in the first leg, when one of the main keys was the success of Xavi bringing on Pedri, Joao Félix and Christensen in difficult moments. And the same will happen this Tuesday. In the Champions League, coaches have to intuit what the team needs and players have to know how to manage each context. That is precisely why it is very likely that Pedri could appear in the decisive phase of the match and not at the beginning. His calmness and judgment with the ball can make the difference. It is prohibited to disconnect from the game at any time. If Barça wants to be in the semi-finals, the first leg cannot happen.
Achraf Hakimi, PSG's starting right back, will be in Montjuïc. Probably the most influential footballer in Luis Enrique's team after Mbappé and Dembelé. And he has a lot of weight in the offensive game. His arrival from outside of him brings a lot of danger because he goes deep well and he is capable of both centering and finishing. It is no coincidence that he is the fifth player with the most passes on the team nor that he accumulates four goals and four assists between Ligue 1 and the Champions League. The pairing that he forms with Dembelé (if he plays on the right) is very powerful because he generates many doubts for his rivals. Barça will have to manage this sector very well defensively as they will have to do, of course, with Kylian Mbappé. In the first leg, the French striker did not even appear but it is strange that he has two games without a role. The Blaugrana were magnificent with collective help to minimize him. Today they will have to be even better.
