Scientists have drawn up their own 'table of 10 commandments' as a message to the negotiators at the Dubai summit. And what is the first of these commandments? Well, science assumes that exceeding the 1.5° warming threshold C with respect to the pre-industrial era "is rapidly becoming inevitable." However, they do not ask to give up. Quite the opposite; they maintain that minimizing the magnitude and duration of the period in which 1.5ºC will be exceeded is "fundamental to reduce loss and damage and the risk of irreversible changes.”
This is the main conclusion of a report in which 67 researchers from 24 countries review the most relevant findings in climate science.
The study, a collaboration between Future Earth, The Earth League and World Climate Research Programme, is published at COP28. Experts offer 10 key ideas for negotiations.
These are
Minimizing the magnitude and period of exceeding the 1º.5ºC threshold is essential. Multiple investigations show that actions to mitigate greenhouse gases are insufficient; “There is no path left to avoid” exceeding this goal of 1.5°C of global warming “for at least a few decades”, unless “truly radical transformations” occur.
However, minimizing the magnitude and duration of that period in which 1.5ºC is exceeded is “essential to reduce losses and damages and the risk of irreversible changes.”
“A rapid and managed phase-out of fossil fuels is required to stay within the target range of the Paris Agreement,” says the second conclusion of the report. "Governments and the private sector must stop allowing new fossil fuel projects and accelerate the retirement of existing infrastructure and rapidly increase the pace of renewable energy deployment." This second point highlights that "high-income countries must lead the way." transition and provide support to low-income countries.” However, all countries must seek an equitable and just transition, minimizing the socioeconomic impacts on the most vulnerable segments of the population.
It is “critical to have strong policies” for the “removal” of carbon dioxide (CO2) once it has been produced (through the use of natural sinks or CO2 capture and storage technologies). Current CO2 “elimination” systems are based above all on forests, which fix and neutralize CO2 (although if they are burned, CO2 is released again). However, in recent times other technological methods for sequestering CO2 have accelerated (on oil platforms, thermal plants, direct capture). But it is necessary to closely monitor these technological systems of “permanent CO2 elimination”.
Relying on excessive dependence on natural carbon sinks (tropical forests, wetlands, coral reefs, soil management to extract emissions from the atmosphere-forests) is “a risky strategy”, since future absorption capacity is “uncertain” . So far, terrestrial and oceanic carbon have increased in parallel with CO2 emissions, but it is not known how the former will respond to additional climate change. “We have indications that indicate that the capacity of sinks, both in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, is decreasing,” CREAF specialist Marcos Fernández, who worked on the report, told Efe. In summary: 1), efforts to reduce emissions at source must be prioritized, and 2) solutions based on natural sinks must have “a complementary role to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce.”
A good government is needed that jointly addresses the climate emergency and the loss of biodiversity. International conventions on climate change and biodiversity (the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Convention on Biological Diversity, respectively) must be “better” synchronized. For example, it is necessary that financing measures to combat climate change do not harm biodiversity, and incorporate “positive safeguards for nature.”
Composite weather events amplify climate risks. “Composite events” refer to a combination of multiple factors and/or hazards (simultaneous or sequential). The problem is that their impacts “can be greater than the sum of the individual events.” Identifying and preparing for specific compound events “is crucial for robust risk management and providing support in the event of emergency situations.”
The loss of mountain glaciers is accelerating due to climate change. These thaws are faster in high mountain areas, including the Hindu Kush Himalayas and polar regions. This poses a threat to downstream populations, who may suffer longer-term water shortages (reaching approximately 2 billion worldwide). It also subjects mountain dwellers to greater danger, such as flash flooding.
The inability to move for the human population exposed to climate risks is increasing. People facing these climate risks may be unable to move or relocate. The existing institutional frameworks "do not take into account this inability to move and are insufficient to support or anticipate the needs of these populations."
New tools are needed to ensure climate justice and enable more effective climate adaptation. The different dimensions of climate justice must be incorporated into strategic climate adaptation plans. It is about generating resilience to climate change and reducing the risk of maladaptation.
Food systems reform contributes to just climate action. Food systems have a key role to play in climate action, with viable mitigation options spanning from production to consumption. However, actions must be designed considering criteria of equity and justice while mitigation measures must be carried out in an inclusive manner, attending to interested parties at multiple scales.
