The large Spanish companies with a presence abroad unanimously point to Ukraine and the Russian invasion as the main uncertainty for their businesses in their latest results presentations. In the most affected region of Europe, the view is now mainly on Germany, where an imminent recession is expected and where Spanish companies have a strong deployment in a priori inaccessible sectors, such as the industrial sector.
In the last decade, Spanish investors have dedicated 12,690 million euros to Germany, only behind the 49,381 million in the United Kingdom and 39,390 million in the United States, according to data from the Secretary of State for Trade. So far this year, investments in Germany have reached 504 million and exceed those directed to the United Kingdom.
All this effort is what is now under pressure due to the rise in energy costs, supply risks, inflation above 10% and the decline in the economy. The European Commission forecasts that Germany's GDP will fall by 0.6% in 2023, with inflation of 7.5%, a worse forecast than the average for the euro area and Spain, where there will be growth of 1%. and an inflation of 4.8%. The tables turn and the European locomotive prepares to brake while the tail cars like the Spanish one still continue the march.
Spanish companies cite energy and labor costs as the most immediate concern. The Institute of Foreign Trade (Icex) figures in 194 Spanish companies domiciled in Germany. There are Telefónica, Santander, BBVA or Acciona. It is also possible to stay in an Abba, Barceló, Hotusa, Meliá or NH, dress in Inditex and Mango, toast with Freixenet and Codorníu or have a snack with Argal and Campofrío. The list is very long and also includes Grifols, Indra, Mapfre and Prosegur.
However, the big stress test will be for industrial companies due to the high cost of energy. Industrial orders are in decline and the disconnection against Russian gas depends largely on the two regasification plants that are being built in a hurry and in which two Spanish companies participate: Sener and Cobra (recently sold to the French company Vinci).
A good industrial thermometer in the country is the Spanish company Acerinox, which bought VDM two years ago and which, since then, has five factories in Germany, including a steel mill, which is highly energy-intensive. "The great current challenges are energy prices, logistics and supply problems," they say from the company. The chemical and aerospace industries are doing well, while the automotive sector suffers.
Automotive industry sources say that demand remains strong and that the problem lies in the lack of chips and the slow start-up of mirror plants that supply Ukrainian suppliers. The body and chassis manufacturer Gestamp has three plants in the country, compared to seven for the interior specialist Antolín and three for mechanisms Cie. These Spanish companies work for giants such as the Volkswagen Group, BMW or Mercedes.
Spanish train manufacturers Talgo and CAF rely on contracts with various local authorities. CAF manufactures in Hennigsdorf and Talgo is the partner of the German Renfe, Deutsche Bahn, with which it currently has an order for 550 million euros.
The Spanish Fagor has been making a niche for itself since 2017 and producing household appliances in Hilpostein. Gonvarri has two factories and, in construction, Hochtief, owned by ACS, is a relevant player.
