Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish Prime Minister and leader of the SNP, had a plan A, B and C to try to achieve independence for her country. Plan A, that the British government agree to a referendum just like Cameron did, has already foundered. Plan B, that the High Court decides that the Holyrood parliament can convene on its own, has come into play today but without great prospects of success, according to legal experts. And plan C, that the next regional elections be de facto a sovereign referendum, is a field full of mines.
The Supreme Court is going to dedicate itself today and tomorrow to hearing the arguments from London and Edinburgh, which are already known (a sentence is not expected for several months). The one in London, from the legal point of view, is that only Westminster has the prerogative to grant or not a referendum. And from a political point of view, that is not the time because 2014 was supposed to be a once-in-a-generation event, and it's only been eight years. The one in Edinburgh is that supporters of independence have the majority in parliament (a coalition of SNPs with Greens), and therefore the right to bring the issue back to the voters. What would be "advisory". And furthermore, that the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union completely changed the rules of the game and adds legitimacy to the demand.
Despite the optimistic tone that prevailed at the Scottish National Party (SNP) conference in Aberdeen over the weekend, Sturgeon is not confident that the court, with English judges, will rule in defense of Holyrood's right to call a referendum. which could result in the break-up of the Union, however "advisory" it might be in theory. Much more likely to see the judiciary endorse the Downing Street position, and say that in the transfer of home rule powers under the Scotland Act of 1997 does not include that of convening a consultation of this type.
And as the new British Prime Minister Liz Truss is even more reluctant than Boris Johnson (which is saying something) to even consider the issue, almost all expectations are centered on Plan C, holding the next election as a consultation of fact. The problems for the SNP are obvious. The first is to obtain a legislative majority for the pro-independence bloc of more than fifty percent. The second is, even if it happens, TO REACH the recognition of London, the European Union and the international community. And the third is the legitimacy of the vote if, as is likely, it were boycotted by all the unionist formations, and therefore the low turnout.
The Scots remain fifty percent divided between supporters and not supporters of independence, although there is no pressure to bring the issue to the polls on October 19 next year, as Sturgeon has proposed (the majority are in favor of a referendum). , but not so immediately, but once the current crisis of inflation, energy and cost of living is overcome, and the war in Ukraine is over). The plight of the UK is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can encourage the loosening of London's moorings in the hope that things would be better on their own, because Liz Truss's government is disastrous. But on the other, it fuels fears about the economy, the difficulty of obtaining international credit, and financing without the subsidies that she currently receives from the central government.
Independence lost by 55% to 45% in 2014 due to doubts about three fundamental issues: currency, borders and recognition by the European Union. And they remain unresolved. Eight years ago the SNP was in favor of keeping the pound sterling, but now it is toying with the idea of developing its own currency, although it has not yet drawn up a concrete plan in this regard. As for the relationship with Brussels, it will not be easy for it to embrace an independent Scotland with the opposition of London and probably other states, Spain among them (because of the precedent it could set with respect to Catalonia).
The SNP has been in power for fifteen years, which is a long time. And although he generally enjoys the approval of voters (45% of the electorate supports him), he already shows signs of beginning to burn with small corruption scandals at the level of deputies and councilors, and the management of public education and health. Drug use in schools is extremely high, there is a chronic problem of childhood obesity (and also among adults), life expectancy among people with fewer resources is lower than that of the country as a whole and one of the lowest of Europe, and the recent garbage collectors' strike turned the streets of the cities into dunghills and offered a very bad image.
Sturgeon offended the Conservatives at the Aberdeen conference by saying he hates them. But the main challenge to the SNP comes not from the Tories but from Labour, which is rising in Scotland in the same way as in England and Wales, as it looks more and more like a viable government option. It has already risen five points in the polls north of the border (at the expense of Truss's party, not the Nationalists), and if confirmed it could steal as many as a dozen seats from sovereignism. Which would make an absolute majority in Holyrood impossible, and would ruin plan C.
Plan D is to hold a referendum "Catalan style", without the consent of London. And if yes, make a unilateral declaration of independence. It is the option that Sturgeon and the SNP leadership want to avoid at all costs, but that a part of the militancy reserves as the last bullet in the cartridge.
