Beyond offensives and counter-offensives, bombings and recaptures of territory, there is another battle front in the war in Ukraine, which is the one that concerns ammunition and spare parts and the ability of each side to have enough reserves to continue damaging the enemy. .
Some very restrictive analyzes have pointed out that Russia could run out of certain pieces of artillery when Christmas arrives. That is not the case, although it is looking in markets like North Korea for resupply routes. Nor is there an endless supply on the western side for replenishments, for example, of Stinger surface-to-air missile systems. It is the front of the spare parts.
"It is estimated that the Ukrainians consume between 5,000 and 6,000 projectiles per day, while the Russian side uses 20,000 to 30,000," says the professor of International Law at the University of La Laguna, Luis V. Pérez Gil, an expert in conflict theory and nuclear war.
Despite this difference, there is no known indicator to say that Russia is going to run out of both light and artillery ammunition in the short term. There are calculations that indicate that their large caliber reserves are around 20 million units and that they could have already used about six, which still gives them a certain supply margin.
Nor is it precisely known what the state of its military industry is and if the production system could be forced even more.
Also, keep in mind that Russia still has allies left. "There are countries that can provide ammunition and spare parts to Russia, such as Belarus and North Korea," says Lieutenant General in the reserve, Francisco José Gan Pampols, with extensive experience in international issues and command in NATO structures.
“In North Korea they are trying to buy ammunition, apparently 155-millimeter artillery shells,” says Nicolás de Pedro, head of research at The Institute for Statecraft, a London-based think tank. . Its founders come from the field of the British armed forces with a long history also in NATO.
Stocks of 155-millimeter projectiles as well as Spaike anti-tank systems and Stinger anti-aircraft are also beginning to cause concern on the western side. "The United States and Great Britain are without strategic reserves because they have consumed in eight months of support for Ukraine the equivalent of four years" of production of these weapons, comments General Gan. And that period of years is what they will need to bring their stocks up to date. This does not mean, for the moment, that the supply chain is faltering and the commitment to Ukraine remains intact so far, although the United States has already provided more than 25,000 million euros in military aid, not counting humanitarian or financial aid, according to Statista.
Where there is going to be a certain shortage on the Russian side, which is already being noticed, is the one that has to do with "high-tech elements that can no longer be imported," explains General Gan. These are trade restrictions imposed by the West in response to the invasion of Ukraine. That is where certain shortcomings of shortages can appear.
"They are running out of chips for certain artillery systems," concludes Nicolás de Pedro.
There is, however, a curious aspect of this war front for spare parts, which is, as the independent Russian outlet The Insaider, based in Riga (Latvia), already pointed out this summer, that of the cannons. Although it may seem so prosaic, the life of these hollow cylinders, more or less sophisticated, through which the projectiles pass, wears out a lot and their need for replacement is very high.
This medium explained that Russian tank guns have a useful life of between 210 and 840 shots, depending on the ammunition used. The rifled barrels of artillery pieces have a wider resistance range, holding between 2,000 and 3,000 rounds. Thus, the number of cannons that would have already been used in the campaign by the Russian side could easily exceed 3,000.
And all this is complicated for the Russian forces if each piece of artillery and each cannon of each armor cannot be properly maintained if the supply line is totally or partially interrupted, as is currently happening with the recovery of land by part of the Ukrainians. This forces the Russians to establish new logistics supply routes.
