The Iberian Peninsula, d'Hondt territory. This is how the electoral systems of Spain and Portugal could be summarized together, in accordance with the very erroneous Spanish custom of only taking into account the last calculation to convert votes into seats, ignoring all previous steps, such as the characteristics of the constituencies. On both sides of the border, very small ones coexist, in which the d'Hondt law wreaks havoc with minority forces, with other very large ones, such as Lisbon or Barcelona, in which these parties find oxygen to survive.
Within this Iberian brotherhood, the Portuguese system is in theory less favorable for the two-party system, because there is no premium for the rural vote to the detriment of the urban vote, like the one that “our brothers” have, the Portuguese colloquial formula for referring to Spain. And the constituencies with few deputies weigh less in the whole. But contrary to the entire historical trajectory, in the last two elections the distortions have been greater in Portugal.
“Electoral systems are curious mechanisms,” stated the great priest of the subject in Spain, José Ramón Montero. The evolution of the Portuguese case confirms this. The recent increase in corrections to small forces is related to a favorable factor for minorities, that of the ease of obtaining a deputy for Lisbon. With 48 seats at stake and no electoral barrier, it is enough to get around 2% of the votes to win, while in Barcelona or Madrid you have to exceed 3%. Thus, in 2015 the animalist party PAN entered Parliament with its 1.99% of the capital.
Faced with the earthquakes of the last five years in the traditional party systems of France, Italy, Greece and Spain, the Portuguese has shown unparalleled resistance, with the Socialist Party (PS) and the conservative Party (PSD) concentrating at least two thirds of the votes. But the seismic waves did cause a sharp rise in abstention and an intense atomization of the small forces. The classic thing was that there were three, the CDS on the right and the PCP and the Bloco on the left, with between 5% and 10%. But new formations were entering through the wide door of Lisbon, usually with a deputy , and then grow. This is what happened in 2019 with the Liberal Initiative (IL) and with the far-right Chega, which in 2022, with only 7% of the votes, became the third party in the country.
Although the small constituencies have a lower weight in the system as a whole, they constitute, as in Spain, almost a private hunting ground for the two-party system, from Portalegre, with only two deputies, to Madeira, with six, although with the historical exception motivated by the powerful communist establishment in the Alentejo. The traditional small forces did tend to take seats in medium-sized districts, such as Coimbra, which elects nine deputies. But in the elections two years ago, the PS and the PSD took all the seats in 13 of the 22 constituencies.
In this way, António Costa was able to achieve a comfortable absolute majority for the PS with 41.4%. On the other hand, in 1999, with 44.1%, but with the previous format of the party system, the current UN Secretary General, António Guterres, was one deputy short of achieving it. The electoral system was less favorable for the two-party system than the Spanish one.
Since the end of the Iberian dictatorships in the 70s, the distortions between the percentages of votes and seats had always been greater in Spain than in Portugal. Not counting the last two calls in each country, in the Gallagher disproportionality index, the most used to measure distortions, Portugal appeared with an average of 4.88 and Spain, 6.88. In pure proportional systems, such as the Dutch or Danish, this index is around two points at most, while in the majority system par excellence, that of the United Kingdom, it exceeds ten.
The Iberian countries are halfway, with their theoretically proportional models, but with majority effects. And in the last two elections the tables have been turned, since the Portuguese average shot up to 7.81 while in Spain, with the PSOE and the PP weakened and the small ones grown, it was reduced to 6.8.
It is a mystery what can happen today, not only because of the failures of the polls. As in Spain, they are made with a very small sample and a calculation for the country as a whole, which is then extrapolated to the constituencies. In 2022, pluralism was almost confined to Lisbon, Porto, Braga and Setúbal, although Chega managed to penetrate some more districts, such as Aveiro and the Algarve. If it doubles as the polls announce, its radius of action can multiply, without any party in the progressive bloc, apart from the PS, being able to do the same. Therein lies one of the keys to today's enigmatic election, marked not only by the change of leadership and the unexpected call to the polls, but also because the Portuguese d'Hondt and his circumstances have lately been more devastating for the minority forces than its Spanish version.
