Nothing good comes from the tense political situation in Spain. Quite the opposite. Not only does it prevent the necessary agreements between the two major parties, PSOE and PP, but there is a risk that these turbulences will negatively affect the image of the country and its prestige, especially in the European Union, the most important area. This was warned this Tuesday by the Elcano Royal Institute researcher Carmen González Enríquez, during the presentation of this think tank's annual report on Spain's position on the international scene. "On the issue of prestige and image, Spain continues to be congratulated, it is in position 12 or 13 in world prestige," González celebrated, but "the internal political conflict, which is very important, may be affecting our image on everything in Europe," he warned.
With the title "Spain in the world in 2024: perspectives and challenges", the Elcano Institute report, presented this Tuesday at the Bertelsmann Space, in Madrid, takes stock from the Spanish perspective of the year just ended, identifies the perspectives it presents the international scene and analyzes the challenges of Spanish foreign action in the next 12 months.
The report indicates that one of the main challenges that Spain will have to face on the international scene in 2024 will be to "overcome the reluctance" and the "loss of political capital" caused by the Government's negotiation with Junts, as well as the "incoherence with anti-secession diplomacy” and “doubts regarding respect for the division of powers.”
Regarding Junts and Carles Puigdemont, Elcano emphasizes that although the attempts to reestablish bridges with Catalan nationalism and overcome the conflict are perceived with “sympathy” abroad, “an amnesty proposed in such a transactional way is not convincing either.” , says the study.
These are some of the warnings from the report “Spain in the world 2024: perspectives and challenges” presented this Tuesday in which the institute's experts analyze the main international challenges that Spain will have to face in the new year.
The report begins by pointing out that 2023 has been marked by two wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, and their very diverse effects, and highlights that in the geopolitical sphere, Euro-Atlantic unity has been maintained, although the trend of distancing between the West and the so-called “global south”.
From a Spanish perspective, the document adds, the year that has just ended has revolved around the presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU), "with abundant achievements that have been partly dulled by the tense political context dominated by the elections and the complex formation of government". Looking ahead to 2024, Elcano warns that Spain faces a new legislature "with the challenge that internal and external polarization does not destabilize the core of foreign policy and that structural challenges (climate, innovation, security, development cooperation) can be addressed. , migrations)" on which this work points out some recommendations for action.
Specifically regarding the presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2023, he notes that it has been "intense and fruitful", although "the turbulent internal political scenario that has framed the semester leaves the feeling of a lost opportunity for significant progress in the influence of Spain".
In terms of Spanish foreign policy, the think tank predicts that in this new legislature the recent foreign policy guidelines will not be altered, although it warns that "there is a danger that the European and international agenda will be contaminated by the polarization between the renewed government and the opposition".
In the presentation of the report, led by the president of Elcano, José Juan Ruiz, some of the authors participated, including one of the coordinators of the work, the researcher Ignacio Molina, who stressed that "the ballot boxes and weapons will be the protagonists" of this 2024.
The report also points out that, in relation to the external image, 2023 "has not altered the international prestige of Spain, which continues to occupy a very high position in global reputation rankings." And he predicts that 2024 will be marked by continuity, "which will be especially evident in external judgments on the prestige and influence of Spain", since the elements that support this opinion are structural, he emphasizes. However, he projects some uncertainties, related to domestic political issues: "It remains to be seen how these data are affected by the external perception of the amnesty law and the domestic reaction it has aroused," he adds.
Along the same lines, researcher Carmen González Enríquez has celebrated the "very stable situation" of Spain in terms of foreign image and prestige. Better even than what the data indicates. "The level of sympathy that Spain arouses internationally means that now, in many of the elements in which the assessment of public opinion can be compared with the international reality measured in statistics, in many of these aspects Spain is better in the opinion publishes what it is in reality," he noted. "Clearly we are overvalued, and that is very good," he celebrated, to then warn of the risk of a repeat of a situation similar to that of 2017, with the procés crisis, "which had an impact on various European countries and overall, in a slight decrease in Spanish prestige".
According to this researcher, it may now be happening "that everything related to the amnesty law, to the negotiations with Junts, the non-renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary, etc., is also affecting Spanish prestige within the EU, which is the area that interests us most".
However, he has predicted that if this impact on prestige had occurred in the EU, which the Elcano Institute will study in an upcoming barometer, he has pointed out, it would be small. "The good news is that Spain continues to arouse great sympathy, admiration, affection and prestige in the rest of the world," he said.
As in previous editions, and this is number eleven, all Elcano researchers have participated in the report. It is structured around 10 axes of analysis: influence and foreign image of Spain; European Union; neighborhood; security; climate and energy; economy and technology; globalization, development and governance; China-United States (USA) competition, Latin America; and democracy, rights and citizenship.
