Author of the book "The Post-Western World" and expert in international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, Oliver Stuenkel sees an irreversible divergence between Brazil and the United States due to the emergence of a multipolar world. He responded in this way to La Vanguardia's questions.
Do you think there is a possibility of rapprochement between the US and Brazil regarding Ukraine?
No. I am quite skeptical about a possible convergence. There are fundamental differences that cannot be resolved. Not only with respect to Ukraine but because of a fundamental difference in vision.
Which is it?
Brazil perceives hypocrisy, the unequal and inconsistent application of norms and rules of the international system by Western powers. There is interest in Brazil in containing the power of the US. Its relationship with Russia responds to this. Brazil has little interest in isolating Russia as it sees it as a crucial element as we move towards a multipolar world. In other words, the perception of Western double standards is combined with Brazilian realpolitik.
Do you think Brazil can be part of a negotiated solution in Ukraine?
Neither. I often speak with Ukrainian diplomats and I believe that Brazil would not be considered a reliable and neutral interlocutor. Ukrainians consider Brazil to be pro-Russia. The truth is that I don't see much room for a negotiated solution whatever the driver.
How do you interpret Lula's speech before the UN?
I think it served, in some sense, to control some of the damage that had been done in the relationship with the US and Europe regarding Ukraine. Lula has made a number of quite controversial comments about the US desire to actively prolong the war in Ukraine. Or on the question of whether Brazil would respect the International Criminal Court (the court issued an order to arrest Putin). So it was a conciliatory speech. She wanted to show that, in many areas, Brazil is the best leader to count on in the global south.
Does Lula want to build a 21st century version of the Cold War non-aligned movement?
Yes. In some sense. There is a desire to create a distinct space with the US on one side and the Russia/China axis on the other. The ambiguity of Brazil is understood like this. For example, it condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also recognizes Russia's legitimate interests in Ukraine. Ambiguity is part of this strategy. But the shot can backfire.
