Salvador Illa's PSC consolidates itself as a party that would win the Catalan elections on May 12, by obtaining between 38 and 40 deputies, compared to the 33 it has now, while Junts, led by Carles Puigdemont, would take second place in to the detriment of ERC, of President Pere Aragonès, which would come third, in a Parliament where Aliança Catalana, the far-right independence party led by the mayor of Ripoll, Sílvia Orriols, would enter with a deputy.
This is what two new very similar surveys published this Tuesday predict while waiting for the Sociological Research Centers (CIS) to give its first pre-election survey this week.
Both the 40db poll for El País and La Ser and that of Gesop for El Periódico give Illa the victory with between 38 and 40 seats; The first gives him a vote estimate of 27.1% and the second, 26.4% (23.0 in 2021). This represents an increase of between 5 and 7 seats for the socialists compared to the last regional elections held in 2021.
Junts is the second most voted force with 21.1% (20.0 in 2021), according to El País and La Ser, with between 32 and 35 deputies, and 20.4%, according to El Periódico, which limits its growth. up to 34 seats. In this way, Puigdemont's party would remain as it was or could improve its position in the Chamber with up to three more seats.
According to the first survey, Republicans with an estimated 18.2% of the vote (21.3 in 2021) would obtain between 26 and 29 seats, while the second gives them 18% and a better performance in deputies: between 28 and 30, which would mean a loss of between 3 and 7 deputies for the governing party.
The PP would absorb a good part of the Cs vote and would reach 9.5% or 9.9% according to the survey (3.8% in 2021) and would obtain between 11 and 13 deputies, according to the 40db study, and between 13 and 14, according to Gesop. In 2021 it obtained three, the worst result in its history.
Vox's 7.7 percent in 2021 would currently go to a similar figure of 7.0 or 6.9, getting between 8 and 11 contested, according to the Prisa media survey, and between 8 and 9, according to El Periódico .
Comuns-Sumar, which were the trigger for the electoral advance by rejecting the Government's budgets, would lose in both studies since they would go from the 6.9% of votes they have now to 5.9 or 5.7%, which would make them pass from the current 8 seats to between 5 and 7 seats (40db) or 6 and 7 (Gesop)
The 40db poll gives the CUP-DT 5% (6.7 in 2021) and between 5 and 7 seats, while the Gesop poll gives them a vote estimate of 4% and between 4 and 6 seats, which It represents a loss of between 2 and 5 seats.
Both polls give Aliança Catalana representation. That of Prisa with 2.1% and that of Gesop with 2.9%. In both cases there is a deputy in the formation of Orriols. Cs would disappear from Parliament when it went from 5.6% to below 1.4 in both cases.
This distribution of seats drawn by both polls would leave an uncertain outlook for the formation of a majority in the Parliament that would favor the investiture of a candidate, with the absolute majority standing at 68 deputies of the 135 that make up the chamber.
According to both surveys, this figure would be reached with the sum of the highest ranges of PSC and ERC or with the help of the commons, or with the highest ranges of Junts, ERC and the CUP, which would be in a position to reissue the absolute pro-independence majority, although they could require the assistance of Aliança Catalana to do so.
