Today, more than 1.6 million young people have the opportunity to vote in a general election for the first time and, contrary to the mantra that runs through social networks, they are not going to vote en masse for the extreme right. At least, the experts and the latest pre-election survey of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) for the month of June agree on this thesis, which places those of Abascal only in fourth position in voting preference among those between the ages of 18 and 24, with 13%, behind the PSOE (22.8%), PP (19.5%) and even Sumar (14.9%).
Of course, it is in that age group where Vox has its highest percentage of voters. It is also true, or so sociological surveys say at least, that the lowest age group is the one with the least determined vote at the beginning of the campaign, and that can be a volcano of surprises: in June it was barely 46%, compared to 77% or 78% of the two immediately higher.
“Young people are interested in politics. What they don't find is a story in the existing parties”, assesses Ernesto Pascual, PhD in Political Science and professor at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC). Hence, in part, it is the electoral sector that gives the program the most importance, with 49%, above factors such as the candidate or the vote against, according to the latest CIS flash survey, dated July 17. A report by the Youth Council published on July 11 supports that idea. 89% of young people between the ages of 14 and 34 say they are interested in politics. "A lot", 55%; “somewhat”, 34%.
But a majority of 59% disdains the current system, compared to 41% who feel "somewhat" or "very" represented.
The same report shows that the issues that interest them the most, in this order, are housing, working conditions, mental health – which they have suffered especially from the pandemic – and the climate crisis. “The desire of young people is for problems to be solved, not to inherit them. They are radically against politicking and consider that the political game today is poor, without in-depth debates on issues that are transcendental to them. They do not want to inherit all this deteriorated system –reflects Xavier Martínez Celorrio, professor of Sociology at the University of Barcelona (UB)–, and for this reason they would like a more participatory and creative policy, and with experiences of good practices”.
Mistrust in politics is one of the factors that can lead one to think that Vox will grow among young people, and of course among those who make their debut before a ballot box. “The youth vote for Vox captures part of the abstentionism because it is the most antipolitical vote,” says Martínez Celorrio, “but if it has become oversized, it is because it is an unprecedented phenomenon that has surprised us all. It is an identity vote of masculinity, heterosexual and anti-feminist, which highlights a macho pride in the face of political correctness, often against a background of great ignorance, and that cocktail calls our attention a lot”.
The detachment towards the system (not politics) has another variable, in which Martínez Celorrio and Pascual agree, and it is the frustration regarding the moment of change announced by the 15-M (it was in 2011), and that "has not met the expectations generated", according to the first of both. “It was a great young mobilization, who shouted “they don't represent us”. This was directed against the verticality of the traditional parties. Young people prefer more horizontal structures, it is what they learn at school and university, where issues are discussed and decided in that field, and the first Podemos was born in that scheme, assembly and as a new way of doing politics, but as they begin to become institutionalized and become a vertical party, detachment begins, ”analyzes Pascual.
Roger Soler i Martí, professor of political science at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and researcher at the Institut de Govern i Polítiques Públiques, adds that "young people have a tendency to look for new electoral spaces and new parties tend to connect better than traditional ones, but in the case of Vox this is not the case, because on many of the big issues on the agenda, such as climate change or feminism, which are important to the new generations, their discourse is very old and therefore does not have as much connection with they. It's an old game."
“Young people are always anti-establishment and what they see in Vox is anti-conformity, a transformative and revolutionary party. Like in their day the JONS or the communist youth”, recalls Pascual. “When it is detected that there is going to be a change in political tendency, it is attributed to the new voters and it does not have to be like that. A shift to the right of the young vote is not really detected”, Soler i Martí abounds.
The CIS data shows that almost 51% of younger voters have a "very bad opinion" of Santiago Abascal, a figure that is 18.7% in the case of Yolanda Díaz. At the other extreme, those who have a "very good opinion" of Díaz and Abascal are respectively 3.3% and 5.7%.
"The left has more problems recruiting than before: they have lost the great space for political socialization that was the factory, and then the family, you learned from your father, who was a worker just like you would later be... this has faded, because it is likely that your life will not follow the same path as your parents, and due to globalization and the relocation of large workplaces, which has benefited the right and neoliberalism," Pascual analyzes.
"Vox is a bubble fed by the networks," says Martínez Celorrio. 41.5% of young people between the ages of 18 and 24 say they find out about political affairs (including the campaign) in the first place through social networks, a figure that drops to 32% in the next group, from 25 to 34 years, according to the CIS. The Youth Council report points in the same direction. 46% of young people have consumed political content on Tiktok in the last week. Not from parties (only 9%), but from “people who talk about politics” (37%). The younger, the more they turn to influencers. Between 14 and 20 years, 50% have been reported in this way.
“Vox is very skilled in the use of social networks and dirty manipulation techniques, they have studied in the American institutions in Steve Bannon's orbit. They use all the propaganda recipes to discredit the left. They are destroying the truth, it is easy when there is a multiplicity of channels without control. They are looking for a low-profile democracy,” laments Martínez Celorrio. “Let's not forget that the citizenship education subject was eliminated by Rajoy. We have structural deficiencies in the educational system in matters such as history, tolerance or poverty. The new propaganda takes advantage of forgetfulness and ignorance and the low role of public schools in the formation of critical citizens”, shoots the UB expert.
