Israel has raised alarms over the possibility that Iran will retaliate for the attack on the Iranian consular annex in Syria, in which seven members of the Revolutionary Guard died. As usual, Israel did not claim responsibility, but this was its most daring and reckless attack, if one analyzes its operations against Iranian positions in Syria, which escalated since October 7, and is considered the harshest blow against Tehran since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.
Therefore, for experts, a response is inevitable – especially after two clear calls to “punish” Israel made by the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – and, as Bloomberg reported citing intelligence sources, the attack could be “imminent” and include “precision drones and missiles.”
Without directly mentioning the Iranian warnings, Prime Minister Beniamin Netanyahu assured yesterday that they are preparing for “challenges on other fronts” and warned that “we will harm anyone who attacks us.” A warning in line with the message that his Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, wrote in Persian on X, promising to strike on Iranian territory if said attack occurs in Israel.
As part of the military preparations to which Netanyahu alluded, Israeli army radio reported that the Air Force carried out a joint exercise in recent days with its counterpart in Cyprus, simulating an air operation and an impact on a remote target.
At the same time, the anticipation of an Iranian retaliation has once again mobilized the US. President Joe Biden has paused his criticism of Netanyahu for the handling of his invasion in Gaza and on Wednesday ratified the US' "strong commitment" to security From Israel. A message that the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, reiterated in a call with the Israeli Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, and that was evidenced yesterday with the visit to Israel of the head of the Central Command, General Michael Kurilla.
On the other hand, Washington has also pulled diplomatic strings. According to Reuters, US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk asked the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iraq to call and urge Iran to reduce tensions with Israel, and did so. Russia and Germany have tried the same.
The head of German diplomacy, Annalena Baerbock, urged her Iranian counterpart, Hosein Amir Abdolahian, to “maximum moderation”; while Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov said the opposite could “lead to complete destabilization in the region.”
From these countries, precisely, have come the first precautions against a hypothetical expansion of the war that Israel is maintaining. The German airline Lufthansa has suspended its flights to Tehran until at least April 13, and Moscow has recommended its citizens avoid trips to the Middle East, especially to Israel, Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories.
For its part, Iran, through the account of to punish this rogue regime could have been ignored.”
While defining its response, Tehran appears to be playing a war of nerves, with encrypted messages and speculation about what time and places it could attack, spread on accounts associated with the regime. That is another challenge for the Israeli authorities. If after the assault in Syria they had to calm the citizens, as some went out to hoard food and withdraw money, now "the Israeli public has no idea what to do, nor how to prepare or guidance," criticizes Mairav Zonszein, from the NGO. Crisis Group, pointing to the Government's lack of leadership.
However, few dare to predict what will happen. The Amwaj media outlet – based in London and dedicated to the Persian Gulf – bets, citing anonymous Iranian sources, that the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied and annexed by Israel, could be the target of the Iranian counterattack since it would pose a “lower risk of a Israeli retaliation.”
And analysts agree that Iran cannot assume the military and economic cost of a total war with Israel (and, by alliance, with the US), which, at the same time, would move the focus of Gaza and revitalize the support for the increasingly isolated Netanyahu government. But he also cannot not respond to what happened in Damascus so as not to lose credibility among his followers. Thus, the scenarios range from a direct and limited blow on Israeli soil to an increase in the actions of the militias that respond to Tehran in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
